Notes · Pablo Stafforinihttps://stafforini.com/notes/Hugo -- gohugo.ioenSun, 12 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000Wild animal welfare: a bibliographyhttps://stafforini.com/notes/wild-animal-welfare-a-bibliography/Thu, 06 Jun 2013 00:00:00 +0000https://stafforini.com/notes/wild-animal-welfare-a-bibliography/<![CDATA[

This bibliography is primarily based onPublications in English on the suffering of animals in the wild and the ways to help them,Ethical interventions in the wild, and the research thatAron Vallinder and I did for a paper on wild animal welfare that we once planned to write. If you know of relevant material not included in the list below, pleaselet me know.

With thanks to Tom Bradschetl and Ricardo Torres.

]]>California Proposition 2: a bibliographyhttps://stafforini.com/notes/california-proposition-2-a-bibliography/Sun, 09 Jun 2013 00:00:00 +0000https://stafforini.com/notes/california-proposition-2-a-bibliography/<![CDATA[

This bibliography was prepared for a research project on California Proposition 2 that I undertook a while ago, while volunteering forEffective Animal Activism. As I became increasingly busy with many other activities, the project was eventually put on hold. I hope to resume work at some point in the future; in the meantime, I thought I should at least make this material public, in the hope that it might inspire others to do research in this and related areas.

]]>Earning to give: an annotated bibliographyhttps://stafforini.com/notes/earning-to-give-an-annotated-bibliography/Sat, 22 Mar 2014 00:00:00 +0000https://stafforini.com/notes/earning-to-give-an-annotated-bibliography/<![CDATA[

A while ago, I did a quick survey of the literature on earning to give—the pursuit of a high-earning career with the express purpose of donating a large portion of one’s earnings to high-impact charities. Given the recent interest in the topic, I thought I should turn those notes into a proper bibliography. If I’m missing anything, please let me know.

Andreev2013MaximizingDonationsVia

Chronicles the author’s experience in finding a job as a software engineer with the goal of earning to give.

Brooks2013WayProducePerson

If your profoundest interest is dying children in Africa or Bangladesh, it’s probably best to go to Africa or Bangladesh, not to Wall Street.

Carter2013VocationEarningGive

Working to fund one’s philanthropic ventures is certainly noble. But we shouldn’t downplay the value of the income-generating work just because we can’t see as directly how it helps others.

Farquhar2012ReplaceabilityEffectWorking

When we look at the consequences of our actions, and consider whether to take a job in a harmful industry, the harm of our taking the job is somewhat less than it first appears. There is still a harm, though, so you shouldn’t take the job unless you think you can do something pretty good with it.

Farquhar2012CollectiveActionWorking

You need to pay attention to what other EAs are doing. But it doesn’t mean that we should always avoid working in harmful industries, or thinking in general about how to individually make the most difference.

Farquhar2012UniversalisabilityImmoral

We recommend earning to give only because we look at the way the world is and we reckon it makes a positive difference. If the world became different, and lots of people naturally decided to do earning to give, we’d recommend something else.

Hallquist2014WhyEarnGive

An engaging, informal introduction to earning to give. Recommended.

Hoskin2013HowMuchTaxes

Suppose you’re looking to donate as much as possible to charity, and are choosing between two jobs. Should you worry about the taxes in each location?

Hurford2013WhatEarningGive

A survey of the field.

Karnofsky2013OurTakeEarning

We’re excited about “earning to give” as one option among many.

Kaufman2011HowMuchShouldYou

Earn and give as much as you can for the level of personal suffering you are prepared to accept.

Kaufman2011WhatAboutNonWork

Even in your spare time, which you usually can’t turn into money to donate by working additional hours, you should still not engage in local charitable activities.

Kaufman2012ProfessionalPhilanthropy

A brief discussion of the convenience of using that expression, before ’earning to give’ had became established.

Jeff Kaufman,History of "Earning to Give",Jeff Kaufman's Blog, September 18, 2012

Credits Brian Tomasik with the first formulation of the idea.

Kaufman2013SummariesEarningGive

Earning to give involves four main ideas: (1) donate; (2) donate to the most effective organizations; (3) earn more so you can give more; (4) spend less so you can give more.

Kaufman2013ArguingAboutBanking

Examples of people in clearly beneficial jobs like Boris Yakubchik (high school math teacher) and Julia Wise (social worker at a prison) are both much less controversial and much more attainable for the typical reader.

Kaufman2013HistoryEarningGiveII

Quotes an exchange between Singer and an early proponent of earning to give.

Kaufman2013HistoryEarningGiveIII

Claims that John Wesley, founder of the Methodist movement, was an early advocate of earning to give.

Kaufman2016EarningGive

Earning to give is a career path that is well suited to people who are good at earning money, who are still exploring cause areas, who prioritize interventions that are funding-limited, who are early in their careers and want to build their skills, or who want to balance altruism against other things in their lives. I find that it suits me well, but I also can imagine myself doing something else five years from now.

Kuhn2013DowngradingConfidenceEarning

Concludes that (1) doing high-paying highly-skilled careers might be dominated by doing directly charitable things and that (2) effective altruists should probably be spreading a broader message.

Kuhn2013CommonObjectionsEarning

Discusses five objections to earning to give.

MacAskill2011BankingEthicalCareer

Altruistic bankers earn a lot, aren’t likely to be replaceable, and can support the very best charities. They are likely to do more good than someone in an “ethical” career.

MacAskill2012FollowingSchindlersFootsteps

Uses Schindler’s example to discuss the morality of working for an evil corporation.

MacAskill2013SaveWorldDont

Earning to give is often the best career option because of (1) discrepancy in earnings, (2) replaceability and (3) high variations in charity cost-effectiveness.

William MacAskill,Replaceability, career choice, and making a difference,Ethical theory and moral practice, vol. 17, no. 2, 2014, pp. 269–283

Defends the idea that deliberately pursuing a lucrative career in order to donate a large proportion of one’s earnings is typically ethically preferable to a career within the charity sector.

MacAskill201580000HoursThinks

80,000 Hours never claimed that most people should earn to give; and now thinks that even fewer people should pursue this path to impact than it did before.

MacAskill2016ShouldYouSwitch

When considering whether to do direct work or earn to give, you could ask yourself: am I in the top 15% of people in terms of comparative advantage at earning to give?

William MacAskill,Banking: the ethical career choice, in David Edmonds (ed.)Philosophers take on the world, Oxford, 2016

Condensed version of ‘Replaceability, career choice, and making a difference’.

Matthews2013JoinWallStreet

A popular, engaging piece, with profiles of many prominent advocates and practitioners of earning to give.

Penalva2015QueGanarPara

An engaging introduction for Spanish-speaking readers.

Redwood2012FlatMarginEffect

Argues that if you take a job that seems to have a strong (positive or negative) impact on the economy, the actual difference it makes to social welfare will be minimal.

Salam2013RiseSingerians

A criticism from a conservative perspective. Claims that people motivated by curiosity and novelty or a desire for recognition may have a much bigger positive impact than people who try to do good deliberately.

Sinick2013EarningGiveAltruistic

Responds to MacAskill’s Quartz piece on earning to give.

Shulman2012EntrepreneurshipGamePoker

It would be a mistake to think of the returns to entrepreneurship as predictably stemming from just showing up and taking a spin at the wheel of startup roulette. Instead, entrepreneurship is more like poker: a game where even the best players cannot predictably win over a single night, but measurable differences predict that some will earn much more than others on average.

Shulman2012SoftwareEngineeringBritain

How attractive is the software industry for those who want to make money and use it to do good? In some ways, the British statistics are misleading, but they also reflect a real difference: software engineers in the US, and especially Silicon Valley, really are better compensated. The post lays out the supporting data, and discusses ways people outside the United States can make their way to Silicon Valley.

Carl Shulman,Salary or startup? How do-gooders can gain more from risky careers,80,000 Hours, January 8, 2012

Altruists have stronger reasons to pursue risky careers because the standard arguments for risk aversion do not apply.

Todd2013ShowMeHarm

Makes some very rough estimates of how harmful finance would have to be in order for its harm to outweigh the good realized by the donations of someone who earns to give.

Todd2013ComparisonMedicalResearch

Earning to give in finance is slightly better than medical research.

Todd2014HowMuchPeople

Attemps to estimate how much people pursuing earning to give donate, how much they can be expected to donate in the immediate future, and how much extra giving was caused by 80,000 Hours.

Brian Tomasik,Why activists should consider making lots of money,Essays on Reducing Suffering, 2006

A pioneering essay.

Xodarap2014PoliticalSkillsWhich

An annotated bibliography of a few recent meta-analyses of predictors of income.

With thanks to Imma Six.

]]>My beliefshttps://stafforini.com/notes/my-beliefs/Thu, 05 Feb 2015 00:00:00 +0000https://stafforini.com/notes/my-beliefs/<![CDATA[

My friend Brian Tomasik recently made availablea table summarizing his beliefs on various issues. I thought recording my own credences on these propositions would be a fun and potentially instructive exercise, and decided to make my answers public. To prevent myself from being influenced by Brian’s responses, I copied the original table, pasted in on an Excel spreadsheet, deleted the column with his answers, and randomized the rows by sorting them in alphabetical order. Only after recording all my responses did I allow myself to look at Brian’s, and I managed to resist the temptation to make any changesex post facto. Overall, I was pleasantly surprised at the degree to which we agree, and not very surprised at the areas where we don’t agree. I also suspect that a few of our disagreements (e.g. on compatibilism about free will) aremerely verbal. Below, I comment on the propositions on which we disagree the most.

If you think you might want to participate in this exercise, you can make a duplicate ofthis spreadsheet and record your answers there before reading any further.

Update: See also Michael Dickens’ responses in the comments section.

Update 2: There is nowa new version of the table below, which reflects my beliefs as of November 2020.

BeliefBrianPablo
“Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?” Answer: subjective99.50%99.90%
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is possible in principle99%95%
Compatibilism on free will98%5%
“Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?” Answer: nominalism97%90%
Moral anti-realism96%20%
Humans will eventually build human-level AGI conditional on no other major intervening disruptions to civilization as we know it90%90%
We live in at least a Level I multiverse85%60%
Type-A physicalism regarding consciousness75%25%
Eternalism on philosophy of time75%98%
Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort72%70%
Human-inspired colonization of space will cause net suffering if it happens71%1%
Many worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics (or close kin)70%70%
Soft AGI takeoff70%55%
By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 201567%70%
Human-controlled AGI would result in less expected suffering than uncontrolled, as judged by the beliefs I would hold if I thought about the problem for another 10 years65%5%
A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all62%60%
Climate change will cause net suffering60%50%
By 2100, if biological humans still exist, most of them will regard factory farming as a great evil of the past60%10%
The effective-altruism movement, all things considered, reduces rather than increases suffering in the far future60%40%
Electing more liberal politicians reduces net suffering in the far future57%60%
Faster technological innovation increases net suffering in the far future55%55%
“Science: scientific realism or scientific anti-realism?” Answer: realism60%90%
At bottom, physics is digital50%—
Cognitive closure of some philosophical problems50%80%
Rare Earth explanation of Fermi Paradox50%25%
Crop cultivation prevents net suffering50%50%
Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)50%65%
Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)50%10%
Faster economic growth will cause net suffering in the far future43%55%
Whole brain emulation will come before de novo AGI, assuming both are possible to build42%65%
Modal realism40%1%
The multiverse is finite40%70%
A world government will develop before human-level AGI35%15%
Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing15%8%
Humans will go extinct within millions of years for some reason other than AGI10%10%
A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity’s AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)5%10%

Values

Value systemBrianPablo
Negative utilitarianism focused on extreme suffering90%1%
Ethical pluralism for other values (happiness, love, friendship, knowledge, accomplishment, diversity, paperclips, and other things that agents care about)10%0.01%
The kind of suffering that matters most is…BrianPablo
hedonic experience70%99%
preference frustration30%1%

Comments

Compatibilism on free will

If by ‘free will’ we mean what most people mean by that expression, then I’m almost certain that we don’t have free will, and that free will is incompatible with determinism. Brian appears to believe otherwise because he thinks that the meaning of ‘free will’ should ultimately be governed by instrumental considerations. I think this approach fosters muddled thinking and facilitates intellectual dishonesty.

Moral anti-realism

This is one in a series of very strong disagreements about questions in metaethics. I think some things in the world—pleasant states of consciousness—objectively have value, regardless of whether anyone desires them or has any other positive attitude towards them. This value, however, is realized in conscious experience and as such exists in the natural world, rather than beingsui generis, as most moral realists believe. So the main arguments against moral realism, such as Mackie’s argument from queerness, do not apply to the view I defend.

Type-A physicalism regarding consciousness

I’m somewhat persuaded by David Chalmers’ arguments for dualism, though I discount the apparent force of this evidence by the good track-record of physicalist explanations in most other domains. About half of my probability mass for physicalism is concentrated on type-B physicalism—hence my relatively low credence on the type of physicalism that Brian favors.

Eternalism on philosophy of time

I assume Brian just meant belief in the static, ortensless, theory of time (what McTaggart called the ‘B theory’), rather than some subtler view about temporal becoming. If so, I think the arguments against the dynamic or tensed theory are roughly as strong as the arguments against free will: both of these views are primarily supported by introspection (“it seems time flows”, “it seems I’m free”) and opposed by naturalism, and the latter is much better supported by the evidence.

Human-inspired colonization of space will cause net suffering if it happens

I’m puzzled by Brian’s answer here. I think it’s quite unlikely that the future will contain a preponderance of suffering over happiness, since it will be optimized by agents who strongly prefer the latter and will have driven most other sentient lifeforms extinct. But maybe Brian meant that colonization will cause a surplus of suffering relative to the amount present before colonization. I think this is virtually certain; I’d give it a 99% chance.

Human-controlled AGI would result in less expected suffering than uncontrolled, as judged by the beliefs I would hold if I thought about the problem for another 10 years

Uncontrolled AGI will likely result in no suffering at all, whereas human-controlled AGI will result in some suffering and much more happiness. Brian thinks the goal systems that uncontrolled AGI might create will resemble paradigmatic sentient beings enough to count themselves as sentient, but I do not share his radically subjectivist stance concerning the nature of suffering (on which something counts as suffering roughly if, and to the degree that, we decide to care about it).

By 2100, if biological humans still exist, most of them will regard factory farming as a great evil of the past

I slightly misread the sentence, which I took to state that most future people will regard factory farming asthe great evil of the past. Given the high number of alternative candidates (from a non-enlightened, common-sense human morality), I thought it unlikely that our descendants would single out factory farming as the single greatest evil in human history. But it’s much more likely (~60%) that they will regard it asa great evil, especially if mass production ofin vitro meat displaces factory farms (and hence removes the main cognitive barrier to widespread recognition that all sentient beings matter morally, and matter equally).

Science: scientific realism or scientific anti-realism?" Answer: realism

I think the best explanation of the extraordinary success of science is that it describes the world as it really is; on anti-realism, this success is a mystery. So I think realism is much more likely.

The effective-altruism movement, all things considered, reduces rather than increases suffering in the far future

I think the EA movement somewhat increases the probability of far-future suffering by increasing the probability that such a future will exist at all, to a greater degree than it reduces the suffering of far-future sentients conditional on their existence.

(Note that I believe the EA movementdecreases the overall probability ofnet suffering in the far future. That is, EA will cause, in expectation, more suffering, but even more happiness.)

Cognitive closure of some philosophical problems

Reflection about our evolutionary origins makes it quite likely that we lack the cognitive machinery necessary for solving at least some such problems. We are probably among the stupidest intelligent species possible, since we were the first to fill the niche and we haven’t evolved much since. (But seeGreg Egan for an opposing perspective.)

Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)

I think extinction before colonization is quite likely; ~20% this century, and we have a long way to go.

Rare Earth explanation of Fermi Paradox

Very low confidence in my answer here; Brian is probably closer to the truth than I am.

Modal realism

Upon reflection, I think I was overconfident on this one; 5-10% seems like a more reasonable estimate. The main reason to believe modal realism is that it would provide an answer to theultimate question of existence. However, the existence of nothing would have been an even more natural state of affairs than the existence of everything. Since this possibility manifestly does not obtain, that reduces the probability of modal realism (see Stephen Grover,Cosmological fecundity,Inquiry, vol. 41, no. 3, 1998, pp. 277–299).

Negative utilitarianism focused on extreme suffering

I see no reason to deviate from symmetry: suffering of a given intensity is as bad as happiness of that intensity is good; and suffering twice as intense is (only) twice as bad. Brian thinks there isn’t a natural intensity matching between happiness and suffering, but I disagree (and trust my judgment here).

Ethical pluralism for other values (happiness, love, friendship, knowledge, accomplishment, diversity, paperclips, and other things that agents care about)

I just cannot see how anything but experience could have value. As I view things, the choice is between some form of experientialism and nihilism,tertium non datur.

The kind of suffering that matters most is… preference frustration

Again, I have difficulty understanding how merely satisfying a preference, in the absence of any consciousexperience of satisfaction, could matter at all morally. Preference theories are also beset by a number of problems; for example, it’s unclear how they can deal with preferences whose objects are spatially or temporally very removed from the subject, without either restricting the class of relevant preferences arbitrarily or implying gross absurdities.

With thanks to Brian Tomasik, Peter McIntyre, and others for valuable discussion.

]]>Carlos Santiago Nino: a bibliographyhttps://stafforini.com/notes/carlos-santiago-nino-a-bibliography/Sun, 08 Feb 2015 00:00:00 +0000https://stafforini.com/notes/carlos-santiago-nino-a-bibliography/<![CDATA[
Carlos Santiago Nino

Carlos Nino was a publicly engaged intellectual of rare integrity and brilliance. In his dedication to human rights, the rule of law, and constitutional legitimacy he combined passion with wisdom and analytic clarity. His inexhaustible courage in fighting to restore decency to his nation provides a model for others working in the wake of dictatorship. We are fortunate to have in his writings a record of his remarkable thought and experience.

Thomas Nagel

I started compiling this bibliography back when I was an undergraduate student at the university of Buenos Aires, and continued to work on it intermittently over the following few years. In 2007, my hard drive was damaged in an accident and most of the data stored in it was lost. I had since then assumed that the document containing the bibliography was among the affected files. A week ago, however, I stumbled upon a copy of it. Thinking that there might be sufficient interest in this information among legal scholars and other academics, I spent a few hours over the following days updating the references and formatting the bibliography for online publication. I would like to thank the staff at various institutions whose libraries I consulted in the course of preparing this document, in particular Universidad de San Andrés, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Sociedad Argentina de Análisis Filosófico, Centro de Investigaciones Filosóficas, University of Oxford (Bodleian Law Library), Balliol College and University of Toronto (Robarts Library).

1966

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,Efectos del ilícito civil,Lecciones y ensayos, vol. 32, 1966, pp. 157–168. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Efectos del ilícito civil, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 249–258.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,Review of Norberto Eduardo Spolanski's 'Nullum crimen sine lege, error de prohibición y fallos plenarios',Lecciones y ensayos, vol. 35, 1966, pp. 157–8. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Nota a N. Spolanski, Nullum crimen sine lege, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 101–102.

1967

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino and Jorge A. Bacqué,Lesiones y retórica: El problema de la ciencia del derecho y la ideología jurídica a propósito de las lesiones simultáneamente calificadas y atenuadas,La ley, vol. 126, 1967, pp. 966–975. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Lesiones y retórica, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 288–303.
  2. Jorge A. Bacqué and Carlos Santiago Nino,El tema de la interpretación de la ley en Alf Ross ejemplificado en dos fallos argentinos,Lecciones y ensayos, vol. 36, 1967, pp. 31–38. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,El tema de la interpretación de la ley según Alf Ross ejemplificado en dos fallos argentinos, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 259–265.

1968

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,Review of Richard Robinson,Definition,Lecciones y ensayos, vol. 38, 1968, pp. 187–188.

1969

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,La definición de "delito",Notas de filosofía del derecho, vol. 5, 1969, pp. 47–65. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,La definición de ``delito'', in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 187–204.

1970

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,La dogmática jurídica: sus aspectos científicos y acientíficos (con especial referencia al derecho penal), 1970. Published with corrections as Carlos Santiago Nino,Consideraciones sobre la dogmática jurídica (con referencia particular a la dogmática penal), México, 1984.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,Lo racional y lo irracional en la dogmática jurídica, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política I: metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 239–248.

1972

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,El concurso en el derecho penal: Criterios para clasificar los casos de varios hechos o de varias normas en la calificación penal de una conducta, Buenos Aires, 1972.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,La pequeña historia del dolo y el tipo,La ley, vol. 148, 1972, pp. 1063–1076. Based on a 1970 conference reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,La pequeña historia del "dolo y el tipo", in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 260–268.

1973

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,La definición de "derecho" y de "norma jurídica", in Carlos Santiago Nino (ed.)Notas de introducción al derecho, Buenos Aires, 1973.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,Los conceptos básicos del derecho, in Carlos Santiago Nino (ed.)Notas de introducción al derecho, Buenos Aires, 1973.

1974

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,El concepto de sistema jurídico y la validez moral del derecho, in Carlos Santiago Nino (ed.)Notas de introducción al derecho, Buenos Aires, 1973.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,Consideraciones sobre la dogmática jurídica (con referencia particular a la dogmática penal), México, 1984.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino et al.,El concepto de acción en el derecho, 1974.

1975

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,La ciencia del derecho y la interpretación jurídica, in Carlos Santiago Nino (ed.)Notas de introducción al derecho, Buenos Aires, 1973.

1976

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,El concepto de validez y el problema del conflicto entre normas de diferente jerarquía en la teoría pura del derecho, in J. A. Bacqué (ed.)Derecho, filosofía y lenguaje: Homenaje a Ambrosio L. Gioja, Buenos Aires, 1976. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,El concepto de validez y el problema del conflicto entre normas de diferente jerarquía, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 228–238 and, with corrections, as Carlos Santiago Nino,El concepto de validez de Kelsen aplicado al problema del conflicto de normas de diferente jerarquía,El concepto de validez de Kelsen aplicado al problema del conflicto de normas de diferente jerarquía, pp. 29–40.

1977

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,Towards a general strategy for criminal law adjudication, 1977. Published in Spanish, with corrections, as Carlos Santiago Nino,Los límites de la responsabilidad penal: Una teoría liberal del delito, Buenos Aires, 1980.

1978

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,Las concepciones fundamentales del liberalismo,Revista latinoamericana de filosofía, vol. 4, no. 2, 1978, pp. 141–150. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Las concepciones fundamentales del liberalismo, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 19–29.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,Some confusions around Kelsen's concept of validity,Archiv für Rechts- und Sozialphilosophie, vol. 64, no. 3, 1978, pp. 357–377. Reprinted, in abridged form, as Carlos Santiago Nino,Some confusions surrounding Kelsen's concept of validity, in Stanley L. Paulson and Bonnie Litschewski Paulson (eds.)Normativity and norms: critical perspectives on Kelsenian themes, Oxford, 1998, pp. 253–261. Reprinted in Spanish, with corrections, as Carlos Santiago Nino,El concepto de validez jurídica en la teoría de Kelsen,La validez del derecho, Buenos Aires, 1985, pp. 7–27.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino,Sobre lo que nos espera cuando despidamos a Kant y Hegel, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 42–46.

1979

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,Algunos modelos metodológicos de "ciencia" jurídica, México, 1979.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,¿Da lo mismo omitir que actuar? Acerca de la valoración moral de los delitos por omisión,La ley, vol. C, 1979, pp. 801–817. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,¿Da lo mismo omitir que actuar?, in Jorge J. E. Gracia et al. (ed.)El análisis filosófico en América latina, México, 1985, pp. 91–104, and in Carlos Santiago Nino,¿Da lo mismo omitir que actuar?, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 205–230.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino,¿Es la tenencia de drogas con fines de consumo personal una de “las acciones privadas de los hombres”?,La ley, vol. D, 1979, pp. 743–758. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,¿Es la tenencia de drogas con fines de consumo personal una de ``las acciones privadas de los hombres''?, in Pablo de Greiff and Gustavo de Greiff (eds.)Moralidad, legalidad y drogas, Buenos Aires, 2000.
  4. Carlos Santiago Nino,La fundamentación de la legítima defensa: réplica al profesor Fletcher,Doctrina penal, vol. 2, no. 6, 1979, pp. 235–256. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,La fundamentación de la legítima defensa, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 269–287.

1980

  1. Nino1980IntroduccionAnalisisDerecho. Italian translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,Introduzione all'analisi del diritto, Torino, 1996. Excerpt reprinted as Carlos Santiago Nino,El concepto de responsabilidad, in Roberto López Cabana and Atilio A. Alterini (eds.)La responsabilidad: homenaje al profesor doctor Isidro H. Goldenberg, Buenos Aires, 1995, pp. 15–20.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,Los límites de la responsabilidad penal: Una teoría liberal del delito, Buenos Aires, 1980. Revised Spanish translation of Carlos Santiago Nino,Towards a general strategy for criminal law adjudication, 1977.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino,Dworkin and legal positivism,Mind, vol. 89, no. 356, 1980, pp. 519–543.
  4. Carlos Santiago Nino,Dworkin y la disolución de la controversia “positivismo vs. iusnaturalismo”,Revista latinoamericana de filosofía, vol. 6, no. 3, 1980, pp. 213–234. Revised Spanish translation of Carlos Santiago Nino,Dworkin and legal positivism,Mind, vol. 89, no. 356, 1980, pp. 519–543. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Dworkin y la disolución de la controversia ``positivismo vs. iusnaturalismo'',Revista de ciencias sociales, vol. 38, 1993, pp. 495–528. Reprinted with corrections as Carlos Santiago Nino,La superación de la controversia ``positivismo vs. iusnaturalismo'' a partir de la ofensiva antipositivista de Dworkin,La validez del derecho, Buenos Aires, 1985, pp. 145–173.
  5. Carlos Santiago Nino,Libre albedrío y responsabilidad penal,Archivos latinoamericanos de metodología y filosofía del derecho, vol. 1, 1980, pp. 79. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Libre albedrío y responsabilidad penal, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 103–115.
  6. Carlos Santiago Nino,Alf Ross: un maestro en el arte de disolver mitos,Doctrina penal, vol. 3, no. 3, 1980, pp. 760–761.
  7. Translation of Felix E. Oppenheim,Lineamientos de un análisis lógico del derecho, Valencia, Venezuela, 1980.

1981

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,Los conceptos de derecho,Crítica, vol. 13, no. 38, 1981, pp. 29–52. Reprinted with corrections as Carlos Santiago Nino,El enfoque esencialista del concepto de derecho,La validez del derecho, Buenos Aires, 1985, pp. 176–195.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,Razones y prescripciones: una respuesta a Alchourrón,Análisis filosófico, vol. 1, no. 2, 1981, pp. 41–47. Reprinted with corrections as Carlos Santiago Nino,¿Son prescripciones los juicios de valor?,La validez del derecho, Buenos Aires, 1985, pp. 109–123.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino,Razones y prescripciones: una respuesta a Alchourrón,Análisis filosófico, vol. 1, no. 2, 1981, pp. 41–47. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Razones y prescripciones: una respuesta a Alchourrón, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 42–48.
  4. Carlos Santiago Nino,Respuesta a Malamud Goti,Doctrina penal, vol. 4, no. 16, 1981, pp. 767–773. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Respuesta a Malamud Goti, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 176–184.
  5. Carlos Santiago Nino,Pena de muerte, consentimiento y protección social,La ley, vol. A, 1981, pp. 708–721. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Pena de muerte, consentimiento y protección social, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 155–175.
  6. Carlos Santiago Nino,Review of Stuart Hampshire (ed.),Public and Private Morality,Análisis filosófico, vol. 1, no. 1, 1981, pp. 102–3. Mistakenly reprinted inAnálisis filosófico, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 76-77.
  7. Carlos Santiago Nino,Review of Carlos Alchourrón & Eugenio Bulygin,Sobre la existencia de las normas jurídicas,Análisis filosófico, vol. 1, no. 1, 1981, pp. 99.

1982

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,La legítima defensa: fundamentación y régimen jurídico, Buenos Aires, 1982.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,Concurso y continuación de delitos de omisión: a propósito de los plenarios “Guersi” y “Pitchon”,Doctrina penal, vol. 5, no. 18, 1982, pp. 283–315. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Concurso y continuación de delitos de omisión (a propósito de los plenarios “Guersi” y “Pitchon”), in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 231–259.

1983

  1. Eugenio Bulygin et al. (ed.),El lenguaje del derecho. Homenaje a Genaro R. Carrió, Buenos Aires, 1983.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,El concepto de poder constituyente originario y la justificación jurídica, in Eugenio Bulygin et al. (ed.)El lenguaje del derecho: homenaje a Genaro R. Carrió, Buenos Aires, 1983, pp. 339–370. Reprinted with corrections as Carlos Santiago Nino,La competencia del constituyente originario y el carácter moral de la justificación jurídica,La validez del derecho, Buenos Aires, 1985, pp. 41–68.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino,Un caso de conciencia. La cuestión del deber de reverenciar los símbolos patrios,Doctrina penal, vol. 6, no. 22, 1983, pp. 315–329.
  4. Carlos Santiago Nino,A consensual theory of punishment,Philosophy & Public Affairs, vol. 12, no. 4, 1983, pp. 289–306. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,A consensual theory of punishment, in Anthony Duff (ed.)Punishment, Aldershot, 1993, pp. 197–214, and in Carlos Santiago Nino,A consensual theory of punishment, in A. John Simmons et al. (ed.)Punishment, Princeton, 1995, pp. 94–111. Spanish translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,Una teoría consensual de la pena, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 116–132.
  5. Carlos Santiago Nino,Una nueva estrategia para el tratamiento de las normas “de facto”,La ley, vol. D, 1983, pp. 935–946. Reprinted with corrections as Carlos Santiago Nino,La validez de las normas “de facto”,La validez del derecho, Buenos Aires, 1985, pp. 89–107.
  6. Carlos Santiago Nino,La concepción de Alf Ross sobre los juicios de justicia,Anuario de filosofía jurídica y social, vol. 3, 1983, pp. 159–174. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,La concepción de Alf Ross sobre los juicios de justicia, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 172–183.
  7. Carlos Santiago Nino,Legal ethics: between metaphysics and futility,Oikeustiede-Jurisprudentia, vol. 16, 1983, pp. 189–220. Spanish translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,Ética legal: entre la metafísica y la futilidad, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política I: metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 111–136.
  8. Carlos Santiago Nino and Jaime Malamud Goti,La responsabilidad jurídica en la represión del terrorismo,Civiles y militares: memoria secreta de la transición, Buenos Aires, 1987, pp. 389–391. Published in Horacio Verbitsky,Civiles y militares: memoria secreta de la transición, Buenos Aires, 1987, pp. 389-391.
  9. Carlos Santiago Nino,Review of Julio B. Maier,Función normativa de la nulidad,Análisis filosófico, vol. 3, no. 1, 1983, pp. 74–75.
  10. Carlos Santiago Nino, Jaime Malamud Goti, and Genaro Carrió,Ley de amnistía,La Nación, 1983, pp. 8.
  11. Carlos Santiago Nino et al.,Prólogo, in Eugenio Bulygin (ed.)El lenguaje del derecho: Homenaje a Genaro R. Carrio, Buenos Aires, 1966, pp. 7–9.

1984

  1. Nino1984EticaDerechosHumanos.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,Legal norms and reasons for action,Rechtstheorie, vol. 15, no. 4, 1984, pp. 489–502. Reprinted in Spanish, with corrections, as Carlos Santiago Nino,Normas jurídicas y razones para actuar,La validez del derecho, Buenos Aires, 1985, pp. 125–143.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino and Jaime Malamud Goti,Proyecto de reformulación de la obediencia debida, 1984. Published in Horacio Verbitsky,Civiles y militares: memoria secreta de la transición, Buenos Aires, 1987, pp. 399-407.
  4. Carlos Santiago Nino,Liberty, equality and causality,Rechtstheorie, vol. 15, no. 1, 1984, pp. 23–38. Spanish translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,Libertad, igualdad y causalidad, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, Buenos Aires:, 2007, pp. 52–67.
  5. Carlos Santiago Nino,The limits of the enforcement of morality through the criminal law, in Jorge J. E. Gracia et al. (ed.)Philosophical analysis in Latin America, Dordrecht, 1984, pp. 93–113. Spanish translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,Los límites a la aplicación de la moral a través del derecho penal, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 47–64.
  6. Carlos Santiago Nino,Ross y la reforma del procedimiento de reforma constitucional,Revista de ciencias sociales, vol. 25, no. 2, 1984, pp. 347–364. Reprinted, with corrections as, Carlos Santiago Nino,¿Puede un sistema jurídico generar su propia validez?,La validez del derecho, Buenos Aires, 1985, pp. 69–88.
  7. Carlos Santiago Nino,Problemas abiertos en la filosofía del derecho,Doxa, vol. 1, 1984, pp. 175–177.
  8. Carlos Santiago Nino,La reforma de los estudios de abogacía,La Nación, 1984, pp. 9.

1985

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,La validez del derecho, Buenos Aires, 1985.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,Las limitaciones de la teoría de Hart sobre las normas jurídicas,Anuario de filosofía jurídica y social, vol. 5, 1985, pp. 75–93. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Las limitaciones de la teoría de Hart sobre las normas jurídicas, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 198–210.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino,The human rights policy of the argentine constitutional government: A reply,Yale journal of international law, vol. 11, no. 1, 1985, pp. 217–230.
  4. Carlos Santiago Nino,El hombre, sus derechos y el Derecho,Revista jurídica de Buenos Aires, 1985, pp. 129–149. Reprinted with corrections in Carlos Santiago Nino,El hombre, sus derechos y el Derecho,El constructivismo ético, Madrid, 1989, pp. 356–365.
  5. Carlos Santiago Nino,¿Qué es la democracia?,Clarín, 1985. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 187–188.

1986

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino (ed.),Reforma constitucional: dictamen preliminar, Buenos Aires, 1986.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,Informe sobre la práctica constitucional de dos sistemas semi-presidenciales, in Carlos Santiago Nino (ed.)Reforma constitucional: dictamen preliminar, Buenos Aires, 1986, pp. 386–399.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino,Exposición del coordinador del Consejo para la Consolidación de la Democracia, in Carlos Santiago Nino (ed.)Reforma constitucional: dictamen preliminar, Buenos Aires, 1986, pp. 402–406.
  4. Carlos Santiago Nino,El desafío a la universidad argentina,Plural, vol. 2, no. 4, 1986, pp. 7–10.
  5. Carlos Santiago Nino,Does consent override proportionality?,Philosophy & public affairs, vol. 15, no. 2, 1986, pp. 183–187. Spanish translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,¿Puede el consentimiento anular la proporcionalidad?, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 133–136.
  6. Carlos Santiago Nino,Los hechos morales en una concepción constructivista,Cuadernos de ética, vol. 1, no. 1, 1986, pp. 67–79. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Los hechos morales en una concepción constructivista,El constructivismo ético, Madrid, 1989, pp. 61–71.
  7. Carlos Santiago Nino,El racionalismo crítico y la fundamentación de la ética,Manuscrito, vol. 9, no. 2, 1986, pp. 39–52. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,El racionalismo crítico y la fundamentación de la ética,El constructivismo ético, Madrid, 1989, pp. 75–89, and in Carlos Santiago Nino,El racionalismo crítico y la fundamentación de la ética, in Felix Gustavo Schuster (ed.)Popper y las ciencias sociales, Buenos Aires, 1992, pp. 105–120.
  8. Carlos Santiago Nino,La paradoja de la irrelevancia moral del gobierno y el valor epistemológico de la democracia,Análisis filosófico, vol. 6, no. 2, 1986, pp. 65–82. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,La paradoja de la irrelevancia moral del gobierno y el valor epistemológico de la democracia,El constructivismo ético, Madrid, 1989, pp. 113–133 and in Carlos Santiago Nino,La paradoja de la irrelevancia moral del gobierno y el valor epistemológico de la democracia, in Rodolfo Luis Vigo (ed.)En torno a la democracia, Santa Fe, 1990, pp. 97–114. Italian translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,Il paradosso della irrelevanza morale del governo e il valore epistemologico della democrazia, in Antonio A. Martino (ed.)La giustificazione morale della democrazia, Genova, 1990, pp. 15–42.
  9. Carlos Santiago Nino,La justificación de la democracia: entre la negación de la justificación y la restricción de la democracia. Réplica a mis críticos,Análisis filosófico, vol. 6, no. 2, 1986, pp. 103–114. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,La justificación de la democracia: entre la negación de la justificación y la restricción de la democracia: réplica a mis críticos, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 195–207. Italian translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,La giustificazione della democrazia: tra la negazione della giustificazione e la restrizione della democrazia: replica ai miei critici, in Antonio A. Martino (ed.)La giustificazione morale della democrazia, Genova, 1990, pp. 73–91.
  10. Carlos Santiago Nino,La participación como remedio a la llamada 'crisis de la democracia', in Luis Aznar and others (eds.)Alfonsín: discursos sobre el discurso, Buenos Aires, 1987, pp. 123–137.
  11. Carlos Santiago Nino,El concepto de derecho de Hart,Revista de ciencias sociales, vol. 28, no. 1, 1986, pp. 33–54. Revised version of Carlos Santiago Nino,Las limitaciones de la teoría de Hart sobre las normas jurídicas,Anuario de filosofía jurídica y social, vol. 5, 1985, pp. 75–93. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,El concepto de derecho de Hart, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 211–227.
  12. Carlos Santiago Nino,Democracia y verdad moral,La Nación, 1986. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Democracia y verdad moral, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 189–191.
  13. Carlos Santiago Nino,Dictamen sobre la reforma constitucional,La Nación, 1986, pp. 4–6.
  14. Carlos Santiago Nino,El escepticismo ético frente a la justificación de la democracia,La Nación, 1986. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,El escepticismo ético frente a la justificación de la democracia, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 192–194.

1987

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,Introducción a la filosofía de la acción humana, Buenos Aires, 1987.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino (ed.),Reforma constitucional: segundo dictamen del Consejo para la Consolidación de la Democracia, Buenos Aires, 1987.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino,El voto obligatorio, in Carlos Santiago Nino (ed.)Reforma constitucional: segundo dictamen del Consejo para la Consolidación de la Democracia, Buenos Aires, 1987, pp. 219–227.
  4. Carlos Santiago Nino,Speedy trials for argentina's military?,The New York times, 1987.
  5. Carlos Santiago Nino,The concept of moral person,Crítica, vol. 19, no. 56, 1987, pp. 47–75. Spanish translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,Los titulares de derechos humanos: el concepto de persona moral, in Lourdes Valdivia and Enrique Villanueva (eds.)Filosofía del lenguaje, de la ciencia, de los derechos humanos y problemas de su enseñanza, México, 1987. Another Spanish translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,El concepto de persona moral, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 137–154.
  6. Carlos Santiago Nino,Begriff und Rechtfertigung der ursprünglichen verfassungsgeben Gewalt, in Eugenio Bulygin and Ernesto Garzón Valdés (eds.)Argentinische Rechtstheorie und Rechtsphilosophie Heute, Berlin, 1987, pp. 85–108.
  7. Carlos Santiago Nino,El cuatrilema del consecuencialismo,Doxa, vol. 4, 1987, pp. 365–366. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,El cuatrilema del consecuencialismo, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 51–52.
  8. Carlos Santiago Nino,Prólogo, in Ricardo Nudelman (ed.)Raúl Alfonsín: el poder de la democracia, Buenos Aires, 1987, pp. 11–17.
  9. Carlos Santiago Nino,El derecho constitucional frente a la llamada "crisis de la democracia", in Héctor Fix-Zamudio (ed.)Memoria del III Congreso Iberoamericano de Derecho Constitucional, Mexico, 1987, pp. 305–319.
  10. Carlos Santiago Nino,Defensa de la democracia y convergencia, in Alberto Ferrari, Francisco Herrera, and Francisco Herrera (eds.)Los hombres del presidente, Buenos Aires, 1987, pp. 129–134.
  11. Carlos Santiago Nino,Sobre los sistemas electorales, in Luis Aznar and Mercedes Boschi (eds.)Los sistemas electorales: sus consecuencias políticas y partidarias, Buenos Aires, 1987, pp. 93–99.

1988

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino (ed.),Radiodifusión, Buenos Aires, 1988.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino (ed.),Presidencialismo vs. parlamentarismo: materiales para el estudio de la reforma constitucional, Buenos Aires, 1988.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino,Presidencialismo vs. parlamentarismo, in Carlos Santiago Nino (ed.)Presidencialismo vs. parlamentarismo: materiales para el estudio de la reforma constitucional, Buenos Aires, 1988, pp. 115–124.
  4. Carlos Santiago Nino,Liberalismo «versus» comunitarismo,Revista del Centro de Estudios Constitucionales, vol. 1, no. Septiembre-diciembre, 1988, pp. 363–376.
  5. Carlos Santiago Nino,La política de derechos humanos en la primera mitad del período del gobierno democrático, in Ernesto Garzón Valdés, Manfred Mols, and Arnolds Spitta (eds.)La nueva democracia argentina (1983--1986), Buenos Aires, 1988, pp. 201–212.
  6. Carlos Santiago Nino,Constructivismo epistemológico: entre Rawls y Habermas,Doxa, vol. 5, 1986, pp. 87–105. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Constructivismo epistemológico: entre Rawls y Habermas,El constructivismo ético, Madrid, 1989, pp. 93–110.
  7. Carlos Santiago Nino,Man and his rights before the law, in Stavros Panou et al. (ed.)Human being and the cultural values: IVR 12th World Congress, Athens, 1985: proceedings, part 3, Stuttgart, 1988, pp. 103–113.
  8. Carlos Santiago Nino,La relación entre el derecho y la justicia,Revista de la Asociación Argentina de Derecho Comparado, vol. 7, 1988, pp. 35–36. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,La relación entre el derecho y la justicia, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 170–171.

1989

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,El constructivismo ético, Madrid, 1989.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,Ética y derechos humanos: un ensayo de fundamentación, Buenos Aires, 1989.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino,La derivación de los principios de responsabilidad penal de los fundamentos de los derechos humanos,Doctrina penal, vol. 12, no. 45, 1989, pp. 29–48. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,La derivación de los principios de responsabilidad penal de los fundamentos de los derechos humanos, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 25–41.
  4. Carlos Santiago Nino,Presentación,Lecciones y ensayos, vol. 52, 1989, pp. 119–120.
  5. Carlos Santiago Nino,Justicia a la conciencia,La ley, 1989, pp. 1197–1207.
  6. Carlos Santiago Nino,The communitarian challenge to liberal rights,Law and philosophy, vol. 8, 1989, pp. 37–52. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,The communitarian challenge to liberal rights, in Carlos Santiago Nino (ed.)Rights, New York, 1992, pp. 310–324.
  7. Carlos Santiago Nino,Transition to democracy, corporatism and constitutional reform in Latin America,University of Miami Law review, vol. 44, no. 1, 1989, pp. 129–164.
  8. Carlos Santiago Nino,Consolidating democracy,Yale law report, vol. 12, 1989.
  9. Carlos Santiago Nino,Moral discourse and liberal rights, in Neil MacCormick and Zenon Bankowski (eds.)Enlightenment, rights and revolution: essays in legal and social philosophy, Aberdeen, 1989, pp. 155–174. Spanish translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,Discurso moral y derechos liberales, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 30–51.
  10. Carlos Santiago Nino,La conciencia de la crisis, in Sergio Labourdette (ed.)La encrucijada argentina, Buenos Aires, 1989, pp. 27–33.
  11. Carlos Santiago Nino,Democracy and criminal law, in Ota Weinberger (ed.)Aktuelle Probleme der Demokratie, Wien, 1989, pp. 54–76. Spanish translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,Derecho penal y democracia, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 13–24.
  12. Carlos Santiago Nino,La filosofía del control judicial de constitucionalidad,Revista del Centro de Estudios Constitucionales, vol. 4, no. Septiembre-diciembre, 1989, pp. 79–88.
  13. Carlos Santiago Nino,Respuesta a Bayón,Doxa, vol. 6, 1981, pp. 501–506. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Respuesta a Bayón, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 53–57.
  14. Carlos Santiago Nino,La justificación de la democracia y la obligación de obedecer el derecho,Revista de ciencias sociales, vol. 34, 1989, pp. 147–187. Reprints Carlos Santiago Nino,Ética y derechos humanos: un ensayo de fundamentación, Buenos Aires, 1989, pp. 225-254.
  15. Carlos Santiago Nino,Indultos y conciencia moral,Relato, vol. 1, 1989, pp. 25–35.

1990

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,Autonomía y necesidades básicas,Doxa, vol. 7, 1990, pp. 21–34. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Autonomía y necesidades básicas, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 99–110.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,Sobre los derechos morales,Doxa, vol. 7, 1990, pp. 311–325. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Sobre los derechos morales, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 113–125.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino,Entrevista a Genaro R. Carrió,Doxa, vol. 7, 1990, pp. 343–352.
  4. Carlos Santiago Nino,La constitución como convención,Revista del Centro de Estudios Constitucionales, vol. 6, no. Mayo-agosto, 1990, pp. 189–217.
  5. Carlos Santiago Nino,Liberalismo conservador: ¿liberal o conservador?,Sistema: revista de ciencias sociales, vol. 12, no. 101, 1991, pp. 63–86. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Liberalismo conservador: ¿liberal o conservador?,Sistema, vol. 101, 1990, pp. 63–85 and in Carlos Santiago Nino,Liberalismo conservador: ¿liberal o conservador?, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 74–98.
  6. Carlos Santiago Nino,La práctica de los derechos fundamentales,Propuesta y control, vol. 11, no. 2, 1990, pp. 135–143.
  7. Carlos Santiago Nino,El discurso blando sobre la Universidad,Propuesta y control, vol. 12, 1990, pp. 1205–1209.
  8. Carlos Santiago Nino,El presidencialismo y la justificación, estabilidad y eficiencia de la democracia,Propuesta y control, vol. 13, 1990, pp. 1263–1283.

1991

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,The ethics of human rights, Oxford, 1991. Revised English translation of Carlos Santiago Nino,Ética y derechos humanos: un ensayo de fundamentación, Buenos Aires, 1989.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino et al. (ed.),Presidencialismo y estabilidad democrática en la Argentina, Buenos Aires, 1991.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino et al. (ed.),Fundamentos y alcances del control judicial de constitucionalidad: investigación colectiva del Centro de Estudios Institucionales de Buenos Aires, Madrid, 1991.
  4. Carlos Santiago Nino,El presidencialismo y la justificación, estabilidad y eficiencia de la democracia, in Carlos Santiago Nino et al. (ed.)Presidencialismo y estabilidad democrática en la Argentina, Buenos Aires, 1991, pp. 11–27. Reprints Carlos Santiago Nino,El presidencialismo y la justificación, estabilidad y eficiencia de la democracia,Propuesta y control, vol. 13, 1990, pp. 1263–1283?.
  5. Carlos Santiago Nino,La huida frente a las penas. A propósito del último libro de Eugenio R. Zaffaroni,No hay derecho, vol. 2, no. 4, 1991, pp. 4–8. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,La huida frente a las penas, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 137–150.
  6. Carlos Santiago Nino,The epistemological moral relevance of democracy,Ratio Juris, vol. 4, no. 1, 1991, pp. 36–51. Revised English translation of Carlos Santiago Nino,La paradoja de la irrelevancia moral del gobierno y el valor epistemológico de la democracia,Análisis filosófico, vol. 6, no. 2, 1986, pp. 65–82? Spanish translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,La relevancia moral epistémica de la democracia, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 218–234.
  7. Carlos Santiago Nino,The duty to punish past abuses of human rights put into context: The case of argentina,Yale Law Journal, vol. 100, no. 8, 1991, pp. 2619–2640. Reprinted, with a few truncated paragraphs, in Carlos Santiago Nino,The duty to punish past abuses of human rights put into context: the case of Argentina, in Neil Kritz (ed.)Transitional justice: how emerging democracies reckon with former regimes, Washington, DC, 1995, pp. 417–436.
  8. Carlos Santiago Nino,Los fundamentos del control judicial de constitucionalidad, in Bruce A. Ackerman et al. (ed.)Los fundamentos del control judicial de constitucionalidad, Madrid, 1991, pp. 97–137.
  9. Carlos Santiago Nino,La democracia epistémica puesta a prueba. Respuesta a Rosenkrantz y Ródenas,Doxa, vol. 10, pp. 295–305. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,La democracia epistémica puesta a prueba. Respuesta a Rosenkrantz y Ródenas, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 208–217.
  10. Carlos Santiago Nino et al.,Consideraciones sobre alternativas semipresidenciales y parlamentarias de gobierno,Estudios públicos, no. 42, 1991, pp. 7–44.

1992

  1. Nino1992FundamentosDerechoConstitucional.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,Un país al margen de la ley: Estudio de la anomia como componente del subdesarrollo argentino, Buenos Aires, 1992.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino et al. (ed.),El presidencialismo puesto a prueba, Madrid, 1992.
  4. Nino and others (eds.),La autonomía personal: investigación colectiva del Centro de Estudios Institucionales de Buenos Aires, Madrid, 1992.
  5. Carlos Santiago Nino (ed.),Rights, New York, 1992.
  6. Carlos Santiago Nino,Deliberative democracy and the complexity of constitutionalism, 1992.
  7. Carlos Santiago Nino,El hiper-presidencialismo argentino y las concepciones de la democracia, in Carlos Santiago Nino et al. (ed.)El presidencialismo puesto a prueba, Madrid, 1992, pp. 17–79.
  8. Carlos Santiago Nino,Introduction, in Carlos Santiago Nino (ed.)Rights, New York, 1992, pp. xi–xxxiv.
  9. Carlos Santiago Nino,¿Qué reforma constitucional?,Propuesta y control, vol. 6, no. 21, 1992, pp. 2307–2335.
  10. Carlos Santiago Nino,Réplica a María Inés Pazos,Doxa, vol. 12, 1992, pp. 49–50. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Réplica a María Inés Pazos, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 49–50.
  11. Carlos Santiago Nino,Respuesta a J. J. Moreso, P. E. Navarro y M. C. Redondo,Doxa, vol. 13, 1993, pp. 261–264. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Respuesta a J. J. Moreso, P. E. Navarro y M. C. Redondo, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 167–169.
  12. Carlos Santiago Nino,Fundamentos de derecho constitucional: examen jurídico, filosófico y politológico de la práctica constitucional argentina y comparada,No hay derecho, vol. 2, no. 6, 1992, pp. 9.
  13. Carlos Santiago Nino,Ética analítica en la actualidad, in Victoria Camps, Osvaldo Guariglia, and Fernando Salmerón (eds.)Concepciones de la ética: Enciclopedia iberoamericana de filosofía 2, Madrid, 1992, pp. 131–151. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Ética analítica en la actualidad, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 21–41.
  14. Carlos Santiago Nino,Consecuencialismo: debate ético y jurídico,Télos, vol. 1, no. 1, 1992, pp. 73–96. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Consecuencialismo: debate ético y jurídico, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 58–77.
  15. Carlos Santiago Nino,Foundations of a deliberative conception of democracy, 1992.
  16. Carlos Santiago Nino,Some thoughts on the legal treatment of abortion and euthanasia, in Werner Krawietz and Georg Henrik von Wright (eds.)Öffentliche oder private Moral? Vom Geltungsgrunde un der Legitimität des Rechts: Festschrift für Ernesto Garzón Valdés, Berlin, 1993, pp. 231–241. Revised English translation of Carlos Santiago Nino,Fundamentos de derecho constitucional: Análisis filosófico, jurídico y politológico de la práctica constitucional, Buenos Aires, 2013, pp. 236-244, 252-254.
  17. Carlos Santiago Nino,La autonomía constitucional, in Carlos F. Rosenkrantz et al. (ed.)El presidencialismo puesto a prueba, Madrid, 1992, pp. 33–81.

1993

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,Breve nota sulla struttura del ragionamento giuridico,Ragion pratica, vol. 1, 1993, pp. 32–37. Spanish translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,Breve nota sobre la estructura del razonamiento jurídico, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política I: metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 184–189.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,A philosophical reconstruction of judicial review,Cardozo law review, vol. 14, no. 3--4, 1993, pp. 799–846. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,A philosophical reconstruction of judicial review, in Michel Rosenfeld (ed.)Constitutionalism, identity, difference and legitimacy: theoretical perspectives, Durham, 1994, pp. 285–332. Revised English translation of Carlos Santiago Nino,Los fundamentos del control judicial de constitucionalidad, in Bruce A. Ackerman et al. (ed.)Los fundamentos del control judicial de constitucionalidad, Madrid, 1991, pp. 97–137?.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino,On social rights, in Aulis Aarnio et al. (ed.)Rechtsnorm und Rechtswirklichkeit: Festschrift für Werner Krawietz zum 60. Geburtstag, Berlin, 1993, pp. 295–299. Revised English translation of Carlos Santiago Nino,Fundamentos de derecho constitucional: Análisis filosófico, jurídico y politológico de la práctica constitucional, Buenos Aires, 2013, pp. 398-403. Spanish translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,Los derechos sociales,Derecho y sociedad, 1993. Reprinted as Carlos Santiago Nino,Sobre los derechos sociales, in Miguel Carbonell, Juan A. Cruz Parcero, and Rodolfo Vázquez (eds.)Derechos sociales y derechos de las minorías, México, 2000, pp. 137–143. Another Spanish translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,Sobre los derechos sociales, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 68–73.
  4. Carlos Santiago Nino,Ciclo de conferencias sobre la reforma de la constitución nacional,Colección de temas jurídicos, 1993.
  5. Carlos Santiago Nino,Derecho, moral y política,Doxa, vol. 14, 1993, pp. 35–46. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Derecho, moral y política, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 101–110.
  6. Carlos Santiago Nino,Contexto social y régimen de gobierno,Doxa, vol. 14, 1979, pp. 47–60.
  7. Carlos Santiago Nino,Justicia,Doxa, vol. 14, 2007, pp. 61–74. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Justicia, in Ernesto. Garzón Valdés and Francisco J. Laporta (eds.)El derecho y la justicia, Madrid, 1996, pp. 467–480 and in Carlos Santiago Nino,Justicia, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 78–90.
  8. Carlos Santiago Nino,Se acabó el debate,No hay derecho, vol. 3, no. 8, 1993, pp. 25–26. Reprinted as Carlos Santiago Nino,Réplica a Zaffaroni, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 151–154.
  9. Carlos Santiago Nino,The debate over constitutional reform in Latin America,Fordham International law journal, vol. 16, no. 3, 1993, pp. 635–651. German translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,Die Debatte über die Verfassungsreform in Lateinamerika, in Manfred H. Mols and Josef Thesing (eds.)Der Staat in Lateinamerika, Mainz, 1995, pp. 97–113.
  10. Carlos Santiago Nino,On the exercise of judicial review in Argentina, in Irwin P. Stotzky (ed.)Transition to democracy in Latin America: the role of the judiciary, Boulder, 1993, pp. 309–335.
  11. Carlos Santiago Nino and Irwin P. Stotzky,The difficulties of the transition process, in Irwin P. Stotzky (ed.)Transition to democracy in Latin America: the role of the judiciary, Boulder, 1993, pp. 3–20.
  12. Carlos Santiago Nino,Presidencialismo y reforma constitucional en América latina,Contribuciones, vol. 3, 1993, pp. 51–68.
  13. Carlos Santiago Nino,Diritto, morale e politica,Analisi e diritto, 1993, pp. 105–131.
  14. Carlos Santiago Nino,Transition to Democracy, corporatism and presidentialism with special reference to Latin America, in Douglas Greenberg et al. (ed.)Constitutionalism and democracy: transitions in the contemporary world: the American Council of Learned Societies comparative constitutionalism papers, New York, 1993, pp. 46–64. Revised version of Carlos Santiago Nino,Transition to democracy, corporatism and constitutional reform in Latin America,University of Miami Law review, vol. 44, no. 1, 1989, pp. 129–164.
  15. Carlos Santiago Nino,Radical evil on trial, 1993. Published, with revisions by Owen Fiss, as Carlos Santiago Nino,Radical evil on trial, New Haven, 1996.
  16. Carlos Santiago Nino,The constitution of deliberative democracy, 1993. Published, with revisions by Owen Fiss, as Carlos Santiago Nino,The constitution of deliberative democracy, New Haven, 1996.
  17. Carlos Santiago Nino,Algunas preocupaciones meta-filosóficas y su reflejo en una concepción compleja de las normas jurídicas, in Ernesto Garzón Valdés (ed.)Derecho, ética y política, Madrid, 1993.
  18. Carlos Santiago Nino,Positivism and communitarianism: Between human rights and democracy,Ratio Juris, vol. 7, no. 1, 1994, pp. 14–40. Spanish translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,Positivismo y comunitarismo: sobre los derechos humanos y la democracia, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 155–184.
  19. Carlos Santiago Nino,When just punishment is impossible..., in András Sajó (ed.)Truth and justice: The delicate balance: The documentation of prior regimes and individual rights, Budapest, 1993, pp. 67–74.

1994

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,Derecho, moral y política: una revisión de la teoría general del derecho, Barcelona, 1994. Italian translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,Diritto come morale applicata, Milano, 1999.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,Positivism and communitarianism: Between human rights and democracy,Ratio Juris, vol. 7, no. 1, 1994, pp. 14–40. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Positivism and communitarianism: between human rights and democracy, in Philip Alston (ed.)Human rights law, New York, 1996, pp. 357–383.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino,Reforma menemista: signo de degradación de la democracia,La Ciudad Futura, vol. 38, no. Suplemento/12, 1994.

1995

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,Ética y derechos humanos (en un estado de guerra), in Cristina Motta and Adela Cortina Orts (eds.)Ética y conflicto: lecturas para una transición democrática, Bogotá, 1995, pp. 3–18. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Ética y derechos humanos (en un estado de guerra), in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 126–136.

1996

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,Radical evil on trial, New Haven, 1996. Prints, with corrections, the 1993 manuscript. Spanish translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,Juicio al mal absoluto: Los fundamentos y la historia del juicio a las juntas del Proceso, Buenos Aires, 1997.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,The constitution of deliberative democracy, New Haven, 1996. Prints, with corrections, the 1993 manuscript. Spanish translation: Carlos Santiago Nino,La constitución de la democracia deliberativa, Barcelona, 1997.
  3. Carlos Santiago Nino,Hyperpresidentialism and constitutional reform in Argentina, in A. Lijphart and C. H. Waisman (eds.)Institutional design in new democracies: Eastern Europe and Latin America, Boulder, 1996, pp. 161–174.
  4. Carlos Santiago Nino,Kant versus Hegel, otra vez,Agora, vol. 4, no. 2, 1996, pp. 87–102. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Kant versus Hegel, otra vez,La política, vol. 1, 1996, pp. 123–135.

1998

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,Objeción de conciencia, libertad religiosa, derecho a la vida e interés general, in Renato Rabbi-Baldi Cabanillas (ed.)Los derechos individuales ante el interés general: análisis de casos jurisprudenciales relevantes, Buenos Aires, 1998, pp. 183–189.

1999

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,Subjetivismo y objetivismo en el derecho penal,Revista jurídica de la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, vol. 1, 1999, pp. 47–82. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Subjetivismo y objetivismo en el derecho penal, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008, pp. 65–97.

2001

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,Utilitarismo, in Torcuato S Di Tella et al. (ed.)Diccionario de ciencias sociales y políticas, Buenos Aires, 2001, pp. 709–714. Reprinted in Carlos Santiago Nino,Utilitarismo, in Gustavo Maurino (ed.)Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007, pp. 91–97.

2007

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,Derecho, moral y política 1: Metaética, ética normativa y teoría jurídica, Buenos Aires, 2007.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,Derecho, moral y política 2: Fundamentos del liberalismo político: derechos humanos y democracia deliberativa, Buenos Aires, 2007.

2008

  1. Gustavo Maurino (ed.),Fundamentos de derecho penal, Buenos Aires, 2008.

2013

  1. Carlos Santiago Nino,Ocho lecciones sobre ética y derecho: para pensar la democracia, Buenos Aires, 2013.
  2. Carlos Santiago Nino,Una teoría de la justicia para la democracia: hacer justicia, pensar la igualdad y defender libertades, Buenos Aires, 2013.
]]>My beliefs, updatedhttps://stafforini.com/notes/my-beliefs-updated/Sun, 08 Nov 2020 00:00:00 +0000https://stafforini.com/notes/my-beliefs-updated/<![CDATA[

Back in 2015, I publisheda post listing my beliefs on various propositions. This post updates that list to reflect what I currently believe. The new table also has a new column, indicating the resilience of each belief, defined as the likelihood that my credences will change if I thought more about the topic.

Note that, although the credences stated in the 2015 post are outdated, the substantive comments included there still largely reflect my current thinking. Accordingly, you may still want to check out that post if you are curious about why I hold these beliefs to the degree that I do.

PropositionCredenceResilience
“Aesthetic value: objective or subjective?” Answer: subjective100%high
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is possible in principle95%highish
Compatibilism on free will10%highish
“Abstract objects: Platonism or nominalism?” Answer: nominalism95%highish
Moral anti-realism30%medium
Humans will eventually build human-level AGI conditional on no other major intervening disruptions to civilization as we know it85%highish
We live in at least a Level I multiverse30%low
Type-A physicalism regarding consciousness10%medium
Eternalism on philosophy of time95%medium
Earth will eventually be controlled by a singleton of some sort60%medium
Human-inspired colonization of space will cause net suffering if it happens10%highish
Many worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics (or close kin)55%lowish
Soft AGI takeoff60%lowish
By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 201555%medium
Human-controlled AGI would result in less expected suffering than uncontrolled, as judged by the beliefs I would hold if I thought about the problem for another 10 years5%highish
A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all35%lowish
Climate change will cause net suffering55%lowish
By 2100, if biological humans still exist, most of them will regard factory farming as a great evil of the past70%medium
The effective-altruism movement, all things considered, reduces rather than increases suffering in the far future [NB: I think EA very likely reducesnet suffering in expectation; see commentshere.]35%medium
Electing more liberal politicians reduces net suffering in the far future55%lowish
Faster technological innovation increases net suffering in the far future50%medium
“Science: scientific realism or scientific anti-realism?” Answer: realism95%highish
At bottom, physics is digital15%low
Cognitive closure of some philosophical problems80%medium
Rare Earth explanation of Fermi Paradox10%lowish
Crop cultivation prevents net suffering50%medium
Conditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)45%medium
Earth-originating intelligence will colonize the entire galaxy (ignoring anthropic arguments)15%medium
Faster economic growth will cause net suffering in the far future50%medium
Whole brain emulation will come before de novo AGI, assuming both are possible to build40%medium
Modal realism20%lowish
The multiverse is finite70%low
A world government will develop before human-level AGI10%highish
Wild-animal suffering will be a mainstream moral issue by 2100, conditional on biological humans still existing15%medium
Humans will go extinct within millions of years for some reason other than AGI40%medium
A design very close to CEV will be implemented in humanity’s AGI, conditional on AGI being built (excluding other value-learning approaches and other machine-ethics proposals)5%medium
Negative utilitarianism focused on extreme suffering1%highish
Ethical pluralism for other values (happiness, love, friendship, knowledge, accomplishment, diversity, paperclips, and other things that agents care about)0%high
hedonic experience is most valuable95%high
preference frustration is most valuable3%high
]]>Situational Awareness LPhttps://stafforini.com/notes/situational-awareness-lp/Fri, 27 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0000https://stafforini.com/notes/situational-awareness-lp/<![CDATA[

Situational Awareness LP is a hedge fund founded in 2024 by Leopold Aschenbrenner and co-managed by Carl Shulman. It is backed by Patrick & John Collison, Daniel Gross, and Nat Friedman. The fund’s thesis is explicitly AGI-focused, pursuing an opportunistic approach to public equities and strategic investments in semiconductor companies and energy infrastructure.

The copycat approach

Investing directly in the fund requires a $25M minimum, a two-year lockup followed by quarterly redemptions over two more years, and Qualified Purchaser accreditation. The fund also has the standard “2 and 20” fee structure. If those barriers are too much for you, there is an alternative. Institutional investment managers with over $100M in qualifying assets must file Form 13F with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) each quarter, disclosing their long equity positions, options, and convertible bonds. Filings are due 45 days after quarter-end and are published on the SEC’sEDGAR system.

This approach has significant limitations, however: the copycat sees each portfolio only after it is disclosed, not when the fund actually trades into it;1 13F filings exclude short positions, foreign-listed securities, and non-equity assets; and, for options, filings report only the notional value of the underlying shares, omitting strike prices or expirations. Still, the loss of fidelity may be acceptable if one is sufficiently bullish on the fund’s strategy and wants a simple way to get exposure to its public equity bets.

Backtesting the strategy

A trader interested in pursuing the strategy would proceed as follows. Each time a 13F filing is published (the “filing date”, typically ~45 days after quarter-end), they would buy the disclosed portfolio at that day’s closing prices, weighting each position by its reported dollar value. They would hold that portfolio unchanged until the next filing is published, at which point they would rebalance to match the new disclosure.

We can backtest the strategy using all existing filings and calculating its returns to date. The script below computes compounded returns in two modes:equity-only (long stock positions reweighted to 100%, ignoring options) andfull exposure (calls treated as long stock, puts as short stock—a rough proxy since, as noted, strikes and expirations are undisclosed). The last period always runs from the most recent filing date to today’s date, so re-evaluating the script updates that partial-period figure automatically.

Code

# ── SA LP 13F data fetcher ─────────────────────────────────────────# Fetches all 13F-HR filings from SEC EDGAR for Situational Awareness LP,# parses the infotable XML, and resolves CUSIPs to tickers.# Output: JSON with one entry per quarterly filing, each containing# the filing date, quarter label, and a list of holdings.# Caches results in CACHE_DIR to avoid redundant SEC requests.importurllib.request,re,json,sys,time,os,xml.etree.ElementTreeasETfromdatetimeimportdatetime# ── Configuration (update these for your environment) ──────────────SEC_UA=os.environ.get('SEC_USER_AGENT','stafforini.com situational-awareness-lp research; contact via stafforini.com')CACHE_DIR=os.path.expanduser('~/.cache')CIK='2045724'BASE=f'https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/{CIK}'NS={'ns':'http://www.sec.gov/edgar/document/thirteenf/informationtable'}CACHE=os.path.join(CACHE_DIR,'sa-lp-13f.json')CUSIP_TICKER={'038169207':'APLD','05614L209':'BW','09173B107':'BITF','093712107':'BE','093712AH0':'BE','11135F101':'AVGO','12514G108':'CIFR','17253J106':'CIFR','17253JAA4':'CIFR','18452B209':'CLSK','19247G107':'COHR','21037T109':'CEG','21873S108':'CRWV','21874A106':'CORZ','26884L109':'EQT','36168Q104':'GLXY','36317J209':'GLXY','44282L109':'HUT','44812J104':'HUT','456788108':'INFY','458140100':'INTC','49338L103':'KRC','49427F108':'KRC','53115L104':'LBRT','55024U109':'LITE','55024UAD1':'LITE','573874104':'MRVL','577933104':'MRVL','593787101':'MU','593787105':'MU','595112103':'MU','607828100':'MOD','67066G104':'NVDA','683344105':'ONTO','68340J108':'ONTO','73933G202':'PSIX','73933H100':'PSIX','743344109':'PUMP','74347M108':'PUMP','76754A103':'RIOT','767292105':'RIOT','80004C200':'SNDK','80106M109':'SNDK','83418M103':'SEI','87422Q109':'TLN','87425V106':'TLN','874039100':'TSM','89854H102':'TSEM','92189F106':'SMH','92189F676':'SMH','92535P101':'VRT','92537N108':'VRT','92840M102':'VST','958102105':'WDC','958102AT2':'WDC','98321C108':'WYFI','G1110V104':'BITF','G1189L107':'BTDR','G11448100':'BTDR','G7945J104':'STX','G7997R103':'STX','G96115103':'WYFI','M87915274':'TSEM','Q4982L109':'IREN',}deffetch(url,timeout=10):time.sleep(0.5)req=urllib.request.Request(url,headers={'User-Agent':SEC_UA})withurllib.request.urlopen(req,timeout=timeout)asresp:returnresp.read()deffind_infotable_filename(acc):"""Discover the infotable XML filename for a filing via EFTS, then -index.htm."""# EFTS search (fast, reliable)try:efts=f'https://efts.sec.gov/LATEST/search-index?q=%22{acc}%22'data=json.loads(fetch(efts))forhitindata.get('hits',{}).get('hits',[]):doc_id=hit['_id']# format: "accession:filename"filename=doc_id.split(':',1)[1]if':'indoc_idelse''iffilename.endswith('.xml')and'primary_doc'notinfilename:returnfilenameexceptException:pass# Fallback: filing index pageacc_path=acc.replace('-','')try:html=fetch(f'{BASE}/{acc_path}/{acc}-index.htm').decode()forhrefinre.findall(r'href="([^"]*\.xml)"',html):fn=href.split('/')[-1]iffn!='primary_doc.xml'and'xslForm'notinhref:returnfnexceptException:passreturnNonedefparse_infotable(xml_data):root=ET.fromstring(xml_data)holdings=[]forinfoinroot.findall('.//ns:infoTable',NS):cusip=info.findtext('ns:cusip','',NS).strip()value=int(info.findtext('ns:value','0',NS))putcall=info.findtext('ns:putCall','',NS).strip().lower()ticker=CUSIP_TICKER.get(cusip,'')ifnotticker:issuer=info.findtext('ns:nameOfIssuer','',NS)print(f"WARNING: Unknown CUSIP{cusip} ({issuer})",file=sys.stderr)ticker=f"UNKNOWN_{cusip}"pos_type='put'ifputcall=='put'else'call'ifputcall=='call'else'long'holdings.append({"ticker":ticker,"type":pos_type,"value":value})returnholdingsdefquarter_from_filing_date(fdate):d=datetime.strptime(fdate,'%Y-%m-%d')m,y=d.month,d.yearifm<=3:returnf'Q4_{y-1}',f'{y-1}-12-31'elifm<=6:returnf'Q1_{y}',f'{y}-03-31'elifm<=9:returnf'Q2_{y}',f'{y}-06-30'else:returnf'Q3_{y}',f'{y}-09-30'defload_cache():ifos.path.exists(CACHE):withopen(CACHE)asf:returnjson.load(f)return{"filings":[]}defsave_cache(data):os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(CACHE),exist_ok=True)withopen(CACHE,'w')asf:json.dump(data,f)cached=load_cache()cached_quarters={f["quarter"]forfincached["filings"]}result={"filings":list(cached["filings"])}try:subs_url=f'https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK{CIK.zfill(10)}.json'subs=json.loads(fetch(subs_url))recent=subs['filings']['recent']accessions=sorted([(recent['filingDate'][i],recent['accessionNumber'][i])foriinrange(len(recent['form']))ifrecent['form'][i]=='13F-HR'])forfdate,accinaccessions:quarter,quarter_end=quarter_from_filing_date(fdate)ifquarterincached_quarters:continuefilename=find_infotable_filename(acc)ifnotfilename:print(f"Could not find infotable for{acc}",file=sys.stderr)continueacc_path=acc.replace('-','')xml=fetch(f'{BASE}/{acc_path}/{filename}')holdings=parse_infotable(xml)result["filings"].append({"quarter":quarter,"quarter_end":quarter_end,"filing_date":fdate,"holdings":holdings})result["filings"].sort(key=lambdaf:f["filing_date"])save_cache(result)exceptExceptionase:ifresult["filings"]:print(f"SEC fetch error ({e}); using cache",file=sys.stderr)else:raisereturnjson.dumps(result)

importjsonimportyfinanceasyfimportpandasaspdfromdatetimeimportdatetime,timedeltaimportnumpyasnpimportrequestsimporttimeimportosimportwarningswarnings.filterwarnings('ignore')# Parse data from the scraper blockparsed=json.loads(data)ifisinstance(data,str)elsedatafilings=parsed["filings"]# Build internal structuresfiling_dates={f["quarter"]:f["filing_date"]forfinfilings}quarter_end_dates={f["quarter"]:f["quarter_end"]forfinfilings}quarters=[f["quarter"]forfinfilings]# Convert holdings list to dict keyed by quarter.# Multiple positions in the same ticker with different types are aggregated# by value per (ticker, type) pair.holdings={}forfinfilings:positions={}forhinf["holdings"]:ticker=h["ticker"]pos_type=h["type"]value=h["value"]key=(ticker,pos_type)positions[key]=positions.get(key,0)+valueholdings[f["quarter"]]=positionsdefget_prices(tickers,dates):"""Fetch close prices for tickers on specific dates."""unique_tickers=sorted(set(tickers))all_dates=[datetime.strptime(d,'%Y-%m-%d')fordindates]start=min(all_dates)-timedelta(days=5)end=max(all_dates)+timedelta(days=5)df=yf.download(unique_tickers,start=start,end=end,progress=False,auto_adjust=True)ifdf.empty:return{}# yf.download returns MultiIndex columns (metric, ticker) for multiple tickersifisinstance(df.columns,pd.MultiIndex):close=df['Close']else:close=df[['Close']]close.columns=unique_tickersprices={}fortickerinunique_tickers:iftickernotinclose.columns:continueseries=close[ticker].dropna()ifseries.empty:continueprices[ticker]={}fordate_strindates:target=pd.Timestamp(datetime.strptime(date_str,'%Y-%m-%d'))after=series[series.index>=target]ifnotafter.empty:prices[ticker][date_str]=float(after.iloc[0])else:before=series[series.index<=target]ifnotbefore.empty:prices[ticker][date_str]=float(before.iloc[-1])returnpricesdef_price_on_or_after(px_by_date,target_date):"""Return (date, price) for the first available price on/after target."""ifnotpx_by_date:returnNonedates=sorted(dfordinpx_by_dateifd>=target_date)ifnotdates:returnNoned=dates[0]returnd,px_by_date[d]def_price_on_or_before(px_by_date,target_date):"""Return (date, price) for the last available price on/before target."""ifnotpx_by_date:returnNonedates=sorted(dfordinpx_by_dateifd<=target_date)ifnotdates:returnNoned=dates[-1]returnd,px_by_date[d]def_period_price_pair(px_by_date,start_date,end_date):"""Return start/end prices for a period using sensible boundary alignment."""start=_price_on_or_after(px_by_date,start_date)end=_price_on_or_before(px_by_date,end_date)ifstartisNoneorendisNone:returnNonestart_actual,p0=startend_actual,p1=endifend_actual<start_actual:returnNonereturnstart_actual,end_actual,p0,p1def_option_position_key(ticker,pos_type):return(ticker,pos_type)defcompute_return(positions,prices,start_date,end_date,mode='equity_only',option_prices=None,option_params=None):"""Compute weighted portfolio return between two dates. For option positions (call/put): if option_prices contains actual historical option prices for the ticker, compute returns directly from those prices. Otherwise fall back to Black-Scholes repricing using the parameters in option_params. """total_value=0weighted_return=0for(ticker,pos_type),valueinpositions.items():ifmode=='equity_only'andpos_type!='long':continueis_option=pos_typein('call','put')opt_key=_option_position_key(ticker,pos_type)opt_px=option_prices.get(opt_key)ifoption_priceselseNoneuse_option_px=bool(is_optionandopt_px)use_bs=Falseifuse_option_px:pair=_period_price_pair(opt_px,start_date,end_date)ifpairisNone:use_option_px=Falseelse:start_actual,end_actual,p0,p1=pairifnotuse_option_px:px=prices.get(ticker)pair=_period_price_pair(px,start_date,end_date)ifpairisNone:continuestart_actual,end_actual,p0,p1=pairifp0==0:continueret=(p1-p0)/p0# Fallback: BS repricing when no option price dataifis_optionandnotuse_option_px:params=option_params.get(ticker)ifoption_paramselseNoneifparams:K_call,K_put,sigma=paramsK_over_S=K_callifpos_type=='call'elseK_putdt=days_between(start_actual,end_actual)/365.25ret=bs_option_return(ret,K_over_S,OPTION_T,dt,sigma,pos_type)use_bs=Truetotal_value+=value# When using actual option/BS prices the return already reflects# the directional bet, so sign is +1. The -1 for puts applies# only to the raw stock-price proxy path.sign=1if(use_option_pxoruse_bs)else(-1ifpos_type=='put'else1)weighted_return+=value*sign*retreturnweighted_return/total_valueiftotal_valueelseNonedefannualize(ret,days):"""Annualize a return over a given number of calendar days."""ifretisNoneordays<=0:returnNonereturn(1+ret)**(365.25/days)-1defdays_between(d1,d2):return(datetime.strptime(d2,'%Y-%m-%d')-datetime.strptime(d1,'%Y-%m-%d')).daysdeffmt(ret):returnf"{ret*100:+.2f}%"ifretisnotNoneelse"N/A"# Collect all tickers and datesall_tickers=set()forpositionsinholdings.values():for(ticker,_)inpositions:all_tickers.add(ticker)all_tickers.add('SPY')today=datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d')first_date=filing_dates[quarters[0]]all_dates=set(filing_dates.values())|set(quarter_end_dates.values())|{today}prices=get_prices(sorted(all_tickers),sorted(all_dates))# Resolve `today` to the actual last available closing date.# yfinance may not have data for today (market still open or holiday),# so we look up what date SPY's price actually corresponds to.def_resolve_price_date(prices,requested_date):"""Return the actual trading date of the price stored under requested_date."""ref='SPY'if'SPY'inpriceselsenext(iter(prices),None)ifnotreforrequested_datenotinprices[ref]:returnrequested_datetarget_price=prices[ref][requested_date]# Re-download a small window to find the real date of this pricestart=datetime.strptime(requested_date,'%Y-%m-%d')-timedelta(days=10)end=datetime.strptime(requested_date,'%Y-%m-%d')+timedelta(days=5)df=yf.download(ref,start=start,end=end,progress=False,auto_adjust=True)ifdf.empty:returnrequested_dateifisinstance(df.columns,pd.MultiIndex):close=df['Close'][ref].dropna()elif'Close'indf.columns:close=df['Close'].dropna()else:close=df.iloc[:,0].dropna()fordt,pxinclose.items():val=float(px.iloc[0])ifisinstance(px,pd.Series)elsefloat(px)ifabs(val-target_price)<0.01:ts=dt[0]ifisinstance(dt,tuple)elsedtreturnpd.Timestamp(ts).strftime('%Y-%m-%d')returnrequested_datetoday_resolved=_resolve_price_date(prices,today)iftoday_resolved!=today:fortickerinprices:iftodayinprices[ticker]:prices[ticker][today_resolved]=prices[ticker].pop(today)today=today_resolveddefdownload_daily(tickers,start_date,end_date):"""Download daily close prices from yfinance, handling MultiIndex. Dates are 'YYYY-MM-DD' strings. Adds a small buffer for trading-day alignment."""tickers_sorted=sorted(tickers)start=datetime.strptime(start_date,'%Y-%m-%d')-timedelta(days=5)end=datetime.strptime(end_date,'%Y-%m-%d')+timedelta(days=5)df=yf.download(tickers_sorted,start=start,end=end,progress=False,auto_adjust=True)ifdf.empty:returnpd.DataFrame()ifisinstance(df.columns,pd.MultiIndex):returndf['Close']close=df[['Close']]close.columns=tickers_sortedreturnclose# -- Historical option prices via Alpha Vantage ----------------------------OPTION_CACHE_DIR=os.path.expanduser('~/My Drive/notes/.sa-lp-option-cache')_AV_BASE='https://www.alphavantage.co/query'_AV_RATE_DELAY=0.85# seconds between requests (75 req/min limit)OPTION_CACHE_COLUMNS=['date','option_type','strike','expiry','delta','price']def_normalize_option_type(option_type):option_type=str(option_type).lower()ifoption_typenotin('call','put'):raiseValueError(f"Unsupported option type:{option_type}")returnoption_typedef_empty_option_cache():returnpd.DataFrame(columns=OPTION_CACHE_COLUMNS)def_option_cache_path(ticker,option_type,legacy=False):iflegacy:returnos.path.join(OPTION_CACHE_DIR,f'{ticker}.csv')option_type=_normalize_option_type(option_type)returnos.path.join(OPTION_CACHE_DIR,f'{ticker}-{option_type}.csv')def_load_option_cache(ticker,option_type):"""Load cached option data for a ticker/type. Returns DataFrame or empty."""option_type=_normalize_option_type(option_type)paths=[_option_cache_path(ticker,option_type)]# Pre-fix caches were call-only and named TICKER.csv. They are safe to# reuse for calls but must not be reused for puts.ifoption_type=='call':legacy_path=_option_cache_path(ticker,option_type,legacy=True)iflegacy_pathnotinpaths:paths.append(legacy_path)frames=[]forpathinpaths:ifnotos.path.exists(path):continuedf=pd.read_csv(path)ifdf.empty:continueif'option_type'notindf.columns:df['option_type']='call'forcolinOPTION_CACHE_COLUMNS:ifcolnotindf.columns:df[col]=np.nandf['date']=pd.to_datetime(df['date'],errors='coerce').dt.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')df['option_type']=df['option_type'].fillna(option_type).str.lower()frames.append(df[OPTION_CACHE_COLUMNS])ifnotframes:return_empty_option_cache()cache=pd.concat(frames,ignore_index=True)cache=cache[cache['option_type']==option_type].copy()cache.dropna(subset=['date'],inplace=True)forcolin('strike','delta','price'):cache[col]=pd.to_numeric(cache[col],errors='coerce')cache.drop_duplicates(subset=['date','option_type','strike','expiry'],keep='last',inplace=True)cache.sort_values(['date','expiry','strike'],inplace=True)returncache[OPTION_CACHE_COLUMNS]def_save_option_cache(ticker,option_type,df):"""Persist typed option cache to CSV."""option_type=_normalize_option_type(option_type)os.makedirs(OPTION_CACHE_DIR,exist_ok=True)path=_option_cache_path(ticker,option_type)ifdf.empty:df=_empty_option_cache()else:df=df.copy()df['option_type']=option_typeforcolinOPTION_CACHE_COLUMNS:ifcolnotindf.columns:df[col]=np.nandf.drop_duplicates(subset=['date','option_type','strike','expiry'],keep='last',inplace=True)df.sort_values(['date','expiry','strike'],inplace=True)df.to_csv(path,index=False)def_fetch_option_chain(ticker,date_str,api_key):"""Fetch the full option chain for ticker on a given date from Alpha Vantage."""params={'function':'HISTORICAL_OPTIONS','symbol':ticker,'date':date_str,'apikey':api_key,}try:resp=requests.get(_AV_BASE,params=params,timeout=30)resp.raise_for_status()body=resp.json()returnbody.get('data',[])exceptException:return[]def_contract_window(ref_date_str):ref=datetime.strptime(ref_date_str,'%Y-%m-%d')returnref+timedelta(days=270),ref+timedelta(days=456)def_contract_from_cache_row(row,ref_date_str,option_type):option_type=_normalize_option_type(option_type)ifstr(row.get('option_type',option_type)).lower()!=option_type:returnNonelo,hi=_contract_window(ref_date_str)try:exp=datetime.strptime(str(row['expiry']),'%Y-%m-%d')except(KeyError,TypeError,ValueError):returnNoneifnot(lo<=exp<=hi):returnNonestrike=_safe_float(row.get('strike'))delta=_safe_float(row.get('delta'))price=_safe_float(row.get('price'))ifstrikeisNoneordeltaisNoneorpriceisNoneorprice<=0:returnNonereturn{'option_type':option_type,'strike':strike,'expiry':str(row['expiry']),'delta':delta,'price':price,}def_select_cached_contract(cache,option_type,ref_date_str):rows=cache[(cache['date']==ref_date_str)&(cache['option_type']==option_type)]candidates=[]for_,rowinrows.iterrows():contract=_contract_from_cache_row(row,ref_date_str,option_type)ifcontract:candidates.append(contract)ifnotcandidates:returnNonecandidates.sort(key=lambdax:abs(abs(x['delta'])-OPTION_DELTA))returncandidates[0]def_select_best_contract(chain,ref_date_str,option_type):"""Select the best-matching call/put contract from an option chain. Criteria: matching option type, expiry 9-15 months from ref_date, absolute delta closest to 0.15. Returns dict with type, strike, expiry, delta, price or None. """option_type=_normalize_option_type(option_type)lo,hi=_contract_window(ref_date_str)candidates=[]forcinchain:ifc.get('type','').lower()!=option_type:continuetry:exp=datetime.strptime(c['expiration'],'%Y-%m-%d')except(KeyError,ValueError):continueifnot(lo<=exp<=hi):continuedelta=_safe_float(c.get('delta'))ifdeltaisNone:continueabs_delta=abs(delta)ifabs_delta==0:continue# Price: prefer mid if available, else lastprice=_parse_option_price(c)ifpriceisNoneorprice<=0:continuecandidates.append({'option_type':option_type,'strike':float(c['strike']),'expiry':c['expiration'],'delta':delta,'price':price,})ifnotcandidates:returnNone# Pick contract with absolute delta closest to 0.15.candidates.sort(key=lambdax:abs(abs(x['delta'])-OPTION_DELTA))returncandidates[0]def_parse_option_price(contract):"""Extract a price from an Alpha Vantage option contract record."""bid=_safe_float(contract.get('bid'))ask=_safe_float(contract.get('ask'))last=_safe_float(contract.get('last'))ifbidandaskandbid>0andask>0:return(bid+ask)/2iflastandlast>0:returnlastreturnNonedef_safe_float(val):try:returnfloat(val)except(TypeError,ValueError):returnNonedef_cached_contract_price(cache,option_type,date_str,strike,expiry):rows=cache[(cache['date']==date_str)&(cache['option_type']==option_type)&(abs(cache['strike']-strike)<0.01)&(cache['expiry'].astype(str)==str(expiry))]for_,rowinrows.iterrows():price=_safe_float(row.get('price'))ifpriceisnotNoneandprice>0:returnpricereturnNonedef_extract_contract_price(chain,strike,expiry,option_type):"""Find the price of a specific option contract."""option_type=_normalize_option_type(option_type)forcinchain:ifc.get('type','').lower()!=option_type:continuetry:if(abs(float(c['strike'])-strike)<0.01andc.get('expiration')==expiry):return_parse_option_price(c)except(KeyError,TypeError,ValueError):continuereturnNonedefdownload_option_prices(option_positions,quarters,holdings,filing_dates,today):"""Download historical option prices from Alpha Vantage. For each (ticker, option_type) and each filing period: 1. On the first trading day, fetch the chain and select the best contract (matching type, expiry 9-15 months out, |delta| closest to 0.15). 2. Lock in that contract for the period. 3. Fetch the price of that contract on each subsequent trading day. Returns ------- per_period : dict {quarter_str: {(ticker, type): {date_str: float}}} Option prices keyed by filing period then option position. Each period has its own contract's prices, avoiding cross-contract mixing at boundary dates where one period ends and the next begins. fallback_positions : set Option positions where no option data was found (need BS fallback). """option_positions=sorted({(ticker,_normalize_option_type(pos_type))forticker,pos_typeinoption_positions})api_key=os.environ.get('ALPHA_VANTAGE_KEY','')cache_only=notbool(api_key)ifcache_only:print("WARNING: ALPHA_VANTAGE_KEY not set; using cached option ""prices where available and BS repricing elsewhere.")os.makedirs(OPTION_CACHE_DIR,exist_ok=True)per_period={}# {q: {(ticker, type): {date_str: price}}}fallback=set()fetched=0forticker,option_typeinoption_positions:opt_key=_option_position_key(ticker,option_type)cache=_load_option_cache(ticker,option_type)position_has_data=Falsenew_rows=[]fori,qinenumerate(quarters):# Skip quarters where this exact option position is absent.has_opts=opt_keyinholdings[q]ifnothas_opts:continueperiod_start=filing_dates[q]period_end=(filing_dates[quarters[i+1]]ifi<len(quarters)-1elsetoday)trading_days=pd.bdate_range(period_start,period_end)iflen(trading_days)==0:continuefirst_day=trading_days[0].strftime('%Y-%m-%d')# -- Select contract on first trading day --from_cache=Falsecontract=_select_cached_contract(cache,option_type,first_day)ifcontract:from_cache=Trueelse:ifnotcache_only:time.sleep(_AV_RATE_DELAY)chain=_fetch_option_chain(ticker,first_day,api_key)fetched+=1contract=_select_best_contract(chain,first_day,option_type)ifcontract:new_rows.append({'date':first_day,'option_type':option_type,'strike':contract['strike'],'expiry':contract['expiry'],'delta':contract['delta'],'price':contract['price'],})ifcontractisNone:fallback.add(opt_key)continuestrike=contract['strike']expiry=contract['expiry']# -- Collect prices for this period (fresh dict per period) --period_prices={}iffrom_cache:# Fast path: read all matching prices from cache (no API calls).rows=cache[(cache['date']>=period_start)&(cache['date']<=period_end)&(cache['option_type']==option_type)&(abs(cache['strike']-strike)<0.01)&(cache['expiry'].astype(str)==str(expiry))&pd.notna(cache['price'])]for_,rowinrows.iterrows():period_prices[row['date']]=float(row['price'])else:# Slow path: fetch each trading day from APIifcontract.get('price'):period_prices[first_day]=contract['price']fordayintrading_days[1:]:day_str=day.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')cached_price=_cached_contract_price(cache,option_type,day_str,strike,expiry)ifcached_priceisnotNone:period_prices[day_str]=cached_pricecontinuetime.sleep(_AV_RATE_DELAY)chain=_fetch_option_chain(ticker,day_str,api_key)fetched+=1price=_extract_contract_price(chain,strike,expiry,option_type)ifpriceisnotNone:period_prices[day_str]=pricenew_rows.append({'date':day_str,'option_type':option_type,'strike':strike,'expiry':expiry,'delta':contract['delta'],'price':price,})# Accumulate per-period pricesifperiod_prices:per_period.setdefault(q,{})[opt_key]=period_pricesposition_has_data=True# Persist new data to cacheifnew_rows:new_df=pd.DataFrame(new_rows)cache=pd.concat([cache,new_df],ignore_index=True)cache.drop_duplicates(subset=['date','option_type','strike','expiry'],keep='last',inplace=True)cache.sort_values(['date','expiry','strike'],inplace=True)_save_option_cache(ticker,option_type,cache)ifnotposition_has_data:fallback.add(opt_key)iffetched:importsysprint(f"[options] Fetched{fetched} chain snapshots from Alpha Vantage",file=sys.stderr)returnper_period,fallback# -- Fallback: Black-Scholes repricing for tickers without option data -----fromscipy.statsimportnormas_normdefcompute_realized_vol(tickers,download_daily_fn,today_str):"""Compute annualized realized vol from trailing 1-year daily returns."""vol_start=(datetime.strptime(today_str,'%Y-%m-%d')-timedelta(days=400)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d')vol_df=download_daily_fn(tickers,vol_start,today_str)result={}fortickerintickers:iftickerinvol_df.columns:series=vol_df[ticker].dropna()iflen(series)>20:log_rets=np.log(series/series.shift(1)).dropna().tail(252)result[ticker]=float(log_rets.std()*np.sqrt(252))returnresultdefbs_price(S,K,T,sigma,option_type='call'):"""Black-Scholes option price (assumes zero risk-free rate and dividends)."""ifT<=0orsigma<=0:ifoption_type=='call':returnmax(S-K,0)returnmax(K-S,0)d1=(np.log(S/K)+(sigma**2/2)*T)/(sigma*np.sqrt(T))d2=d1-sigma*np.sqrt(T)ifoption_type=='call':returnS*_norm.cdf(d1)-K*_norm.cdf(d2)returnK*_norm.cdf(-d2)-S*_norm.cdf(-d1)defbs_option_return(stock_return,K_over_S,T,delta_t,sigma,option_type='call'):"""Compute option return from stock return using Black-Scholes repricing. Normalizes S_0 = 1, so S_1 = 1 + stock_return and K = K_over_S. T is time to expiry at period start; delta_t is time elapsed. """V0=bs_price(1.0,K_over_S,T,sigma,option_type)V1=bs_price(1.0+stock_return,K_over_S,max(T-delta_t,0),sigma,option_type)ifV0<=0:returnstock_returnreturnV1/V0-1OPTION_DELTA=0.15OPTION_T=1.0defbuild_option_params(option_tickers,ticker_vol):"""Build {ticker: (K_over_S_call, K_over_S_put, sigma)} for BS fallback."""result={}fortinoption_tickers:iftnotinticker_vol:continuesigma=ticker_vol[t]srt=sigma*OPTION_T**0.5# Call: delta = N(d1) = OPTION_DELTAd1_call=_norm.ppf(OPTION_DELTA)K_call=np.exp(-d1_call*srt+sigma**2*OPTION_T/2)# Put: delta = N(d1) - 1 = -OPTION_DELTA, so N(d1) = 1 - OPTION_DELTAd1_put=_norm.ppf(1-OPTION_DELTA)K_put=np.exp(-d1_put*srt+sigma**2*OPTION_T/2)result[t]=(K_call,K_put,sigma)returnresultdefdaily_cumulative(holdings,quarters,filing_dates,close,today,mode,per_period_opt=None,option_params=None):"""Build a daily series of cumulative growth factors for a given mode. For each filing period the portfolio weights are fixed. Each trading day's weighted return is computed relative to the period's starting prices, then chained with the prior period's cumulative growth. For option positions: uses per-period option prices from per_period_opt when available; otherwise falls back to Black-Scholes repricing using option_params. """cum_growth=1.0dates_out=[]values_out=[]fori,qinenumerate(quarters):period_start=filing_dates[q]period_end=filing_dates[quarters[i+1]]ifi<len(quarters)-1elsetodayps=pd.Timestamp(period_start)pe=pd.Timestamp(period_end)# Trading days in this periodmask=(close.index>=ps)&(close.index<=pe)period_close=close[mask]ifperiod_close.empty:continue# Option prices for this period (keyed by (ticker, type) → prices)quarter_opt=per_period_opt.get(q,{})ifper_period_optelse{}# Determine portfolio weights and starting pricespositions=holdings[q]weights={}start_prices={}use_opt_px={}# track which positions use option pricestotal_value=0for(ticker,pos_type),valueinpositions.items():ifmode=='equity_only'andpos_type!='long':continue# Select price source for this positionis_option=pos_typein('call','put')opt_key=_option_position_key(ticker,pos_type)has_opt=is_optionandopt_keyinquarter_optifhas_opt:ticker_opt=quarter_opt[opt_key]opt_dates=sorted(dfordinticker_optifd>=period_start)ifnotopt_dates:continuestart_prices[(ticker,pos_type)]=ticker_opt[opt_dates[0]]eliftickerinclose.columns:src=close[ticker].dropna()avail=src[src.index>=ps]ifavail.empty:continuestart_prices[(ticker,pos_type)]=float(avail.iloc[0])else:continueweights[(ticker,pos_type)]=valueuse_opt_px[(ticker,pos_type)]=has_opttotal_value+=valueiftotal_value==0:continue# Daily weighted return relative to period start# Skip first day of subsequent periods (already recorded as last day# of the prior period) to avoid duplicate boundary dates.start_idx=1ifi>0else0# Forward-fill: track last known option price so that gaps in# option data don't cause positions to vanish mid-period.last_opt={k:vfork,vinstart_prices.items()ifuse_opt_px.get(k)}forday_idxinrange(start_idx,len(period_close)):day=period_close.index[day_idx]day_str=day.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')weighted_return=0for(ticker,pos_type),valueinweights.items():p0=start_prices[(ticker,pos_type)]ifp0==0:continueifuse_opt_px[(ticker,pos_type)]:opt_key=_option_position_key(ticker,pos_type)p1_val=quarter_opt.get(opt_key,{}).get(day_str)ifp1_valisnotNone:last_opt[(ticker,pos_type)]=p1_valelse:p1_val=last_opt.get((ticker,pos_type))ifp1_valisNone:continueeliftickerinperiod_close.columns:p1_val=period_close[ticker].iloc[day_idx]ifpd.isna(p1_val):continueelse:continueret=(float(p1_val)-p0)/p0# Fallback: BS repricing for option positions without option datause_bs=Falseif(pos_typein('call','put')andnotuse_opt_px[(ticker,pos_type)]):params=option_params.get(ticker)ifoption_paramselseNoneifparams:K_call,K_put,sigma=paramsK_over_S=K_callifpos_type=='call'elseK_putdt=(day-ps).days/365.25ret=bs_option_return(ret,K_over_S,OPTION_T,dt,sigma,pos_type)use_bs=Truesign=1if(use_opt_px[(ticker,pos_type)]oruse_bs)else(-1ifpos_type=='put'else1)weighted_return+=(value/total_value)*sign*retdates_out.append(day)values_out.append(cum_growth*(1+weighted_return))# Chain: next period starts from the last day's growth factorifvalues_out:cum_growth=values_out[-1]returndates_out,values_out# Compute copycat returnsheader=(f"{'Period':<16}{'Dates':<24} "f"{'Eq. only':>9}{'Full exp.':>9}{'SPY':>9}")print("COPYCAT STRATEGY RETURNS")print("="*72)print(header)print("-"*72)cum_eq=1.0cum_full=1.0cum_spy=1.0fori,qinenumerate(quarters):start=filing_dates[q]end=filing_dates[quarters[i+1]]ifi<len(quarters)-1elsetodaysuffix=" †"ifi==len(quarters)-1else""ret_eq=compute_return(holdings[q],prices,start,end,'equity_only')ret_full=compute_return(holdings[q],prices,start,end,'full')ret_spy=Noneif'SPY'inpricesandstartinprices['SPY']andendinprices['SPY']:spy_p0,spy_p1=prices['SPY'][start],prices['SPY'][end]ifspy_p0!=0:ret_spy=(spy_p1-spy_p0)/spy_p0ifret_eqisnotNone:cum_eq*=(1+ret_eq)ifret_fullisnotNone:cum_full*=(1+ret_full)ifret_spyisnotNone:cum_spy*=(1+ret_spy)dates_str=f"{start} to{end}"print(f"{q+suffix:<16}{dates_str:<24} "f"{fmt(ret_eq):>9}{fmt(ret_full):>9}{fmt(ret_spy):>9}")print("-"*72)cum_eq_ret=cum_eq-1cum_full_ret=cum_full-1cum_spy_ret=cum_spy-1dates_str=f"{first_date} to{today}"print(f"{'Cumulative':<16}{dates_str:<24} "f"{fmt(cum_eq_ret):>9}{fmt(cum_full_ret):>9}{fmt(cum_spy_ret):>9}")print()print("† = partial period (still holding; updates on re-evaluation)")print("Eq. only = long equity positions only")print("Full exp. = options treated as underlying exposure proxy")# ── Risk-adjusted returns ──────────────────────────────────────────daily_close=download_daily(all_tickers,first_date,today)defdaily_returns_series(holdings,quarters,filing_dates,daily_close,today,mode,per_period_opt=None,option_params=None):"""Compute daily portfolio return series for a given mode. Uses per-period option prices when available; falls back to Black-Scholes repricing using option_params otherwise. """ifdaily_close.empty:returnpd.Series(dtype=float)returns,dates=[],[]fori,qinenumerate(quarters):ps=pd.Timestamp(filing_dates[q])pe=pd.Timestamp(filing_dates[quarters[i+1]]ifi<len(quarters)-1elsetoday)period=daily_close[(daily_close.index>=ps)&(daily_close.index<=pe)]iflen(period)<2:continuequarter_opt=per_period_opt.get(q,{})ifper_period_optelse{}weights={}use_opt={}total_value=0for(ticker,pos_type),valueinholdings[q].items():ifmode=='equity_only'andpos_type!='long':continueis_option=pos_typein('call','put')opt_key=_option_position_key(ticker,pos_type)has_opt=is_optionandopt_keyinquarter_optifnothas_optandtickernotindaily_close.columns:continueweights[(ticker,pos_type)]=valueuse_opt[(ticker,pos_type)]=has_opttotal_value+=valueiftotal_value==0:continue# Forward-fill: track last known option price per positionlast_opt={}forday_idxinrange(1,len(period)):daily_ret=0day_curr=period.index[day_idx]day_prev=period.index[day_idx-1]d_curr=day_curr.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')d_prev=day_prev.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')for(ticker,pos_type),valueinweights.items():ifuse_opt[(ticker,pos_type)]:opt_key=_option_position_key(ticker,pos_type)ticker_opt=quarter_opt.get(opt_key,{})p0=ticker_opt.get(d_prev,last_opt.get((ticker,pos_type)))raw_p1=ticker_opt.get(d_curr)p1=raw_p1ifraw_p1isnotNoneelsep0ifraw_p1isnotNone:last_opt[(ticker,pos_type)]=raw_p1elifp0isnotNone:last_opt[(ticker,pos_type)]=p0ifp0isNoneorp1isNone:continueelse:iftickernotinperiod.columns:continuep0=period[ticker].iloc[day_idx-1]p1=period[ticker].iloc[day_idx]ifpd.isna(p0)orpd.isna(p1)orp0==0:continueret=(float(p1)-float(p0))/float(p0)use_bs=Falseif(pos_typein('call','put')andnotuse_opt[(ticker,pos_type)]):params=option_params.get(ticker)ifoption_paramselseNoneifparams:K_call,K_put,sigma=paramsK_over_S=K_callifpos_type=='call'elseK_putdt=(day_curr-ps).days/365.25# Reconstruct cumulative stock return for BS repricingiftickerinperiod.columns:s0=period[ticker].iloc[0]ifs0andnotpd.isna(s0)ands0!=0:cum_stock_ret=(float(period[ticker].iloc[day_idx])-float(s0))/float(s0)cum_opt_ret=bs_option_return(cum_stock_ret,K_over_S,OPTION_T,dt,sigma,pos_type)dt_prev=(day_prev-ps).days/365.25cum_stock_ret_prev=(float(period[ticker].iloc[day_idx-1])-float(s0))/float(s0)cum_opt_ret_prev=bs_option_return(cum_stock_ret_prev,K_over_S,OPTION_T,dt_prev,sigma,pos_type)ret=(1+cum_opt_ret)/(1+cum_opt_ret_prev)-1if(1+cum_opt_ret_prev)!=0elseretuse_bs=Truesign=1if(use_opt[(ticker,pos_type)]oruse_bs)else(-1ifpos_type=='put'else1)daily_ret+=(value/total_value)*sign*retreturns.append(daily_ret)dates.append(period.index[day_idx])returnpd.Series(returns,index=dates)ret_eq_d=daily_returns_series(holdings,quarters,filing_dates,daily_close,today,'equity_only')ret_full_d=daily_returns_series(holdings,quarters,filing_dates,daily_close,today,'full')if'SPY'indaily_close.columns:spy_close=daily_close['SPY'].dropna()spy_period=spy_close[spy_close.index>=pd.Timestamp(first_date)]ret_spy_d=spy_period.pct_change().dropna()else:ret_spy_d=pd.Series(dtype=float)defsharpe(daily_rets,rf_annual=0.04):ifdaily_rets.empty:returnfloat('nan')rf_daily=(1+rf_annual)**(1/252)-1excess=daily_rets-rf_dailyifexcess.std()==0orpd.isna(excess.std()):returnfloat('nan')returnfloat(excess.mean()/excess.std()*252**0.5)defmax_drawdown(daily_rets):ifdaily_rets.empty:returnfloat('nan')cum=(1+daily_rets).cumprod()returnfloat(((cum-cum.cummax())/cum.cummax()).min()*100)print()print("RISK-ADJUSTED RETURNS")print("="*55)print(f"{'Metric':<25}{'Eq. only':>9}{'Full exp.':>9}{'SPY':>9}")print("-"*55)vol_eq=float(ret_eq_d.std()*252**0.5*100)vol_full=float(ret_full_d.std()*252**0.5*100)vol_spy=float(ret_spy_d.std()*252**0.5*100)print(f"{'Ann. volatility':<25}{vol_eq:>8.1f}%{vol_full:>8.1f}%{vol_spy:>8.1f}%")sh_eq=sharpe(ret_eq_d)sh_full=sharpe(ret_full_d)sh_spy=sharpe(ret_spy_d)print(f"{'Sharpe (rf=4%)':<25}{sh_eq:>9.2f}{sh_full:>9.2f}{sh_spy:>9.2f}")mdd_eq=max_drawdown(ret_eq_d)mdd_full=max_drawdown(ret_full_d)mdd_spy=max_drawdown(ret_spy_d)print(f"{'Max drawdown':<25}{mdd_eq:>8.1f}%{mdd_full:>8.1f}%{mdd_spy:>8.1f}%")

importjsonimportyfinanceasyfimportpandasaspdfromdatetimeimportdatetime,timedeltaimportnumpyasnpimportrequestsimporttimeimportosimportwarningswarnings.filterwarnings('ignore')# Parse data from the scraper blockparsed=json.loads(data)ifisinstance(data,str)elsedatafilings=parsed["filings"]# Build internal structuresfiling_dates={f["quarter"]:f["filing_date"]forfinfilings}quarter_end_dates={f["quarter"]:f["quarter_end"]forfinfilings}quarters=[f["quarter"]forfinfilings]# Convert holdings list to dict keyed by quarter.# Multiple positions in the same ticker with different types are aggregated# by value per (ticker, type) pair.holdings={}forfinfilings:positions={}forhinf["holdings"]:ticker=h["ticker"]pos_type=h["type"]value=h["value"]key=(ticker,pos_type)positions[key]=positions.get(key,0)+valueholdings[f["quarter"]]=positionsdefget_prices(tickers,dates):"""Fetch close prices for tickers on specific dates."""unique_tickers=sorted(set(tickers))all_dates=[datetime.strptime(d,'%Y-%m-%d')fordindates]start=min(all_dates)-timedelta(days=5)end=max(all_dates)+timedelta(days=5)df=yf.download(unique_tickers,start=start,end=end,progress=False,auto_adjust=True)ifdf.empty:return{}# yf.download returns MultiIndex columns (metric, ticker) for multiple tickersifisinstance(df.columns,pd.MultiIndex):close=df['Close']else:close=df[['Close']]close.columns=unique_tickersprices={}fortickerinunique_tickers:iftickernotinclose.columns:continueseries=close[ticker].dropna()ifseries.empty:continueprices[ticker]={}fordate_strindates:target=pd.Timestamp(datetime.strptime(date_str,'%Y-%m-%d'))after=series[series.index>=target]ifnotafter.empty:prices[ticker][date_str]=float(after.iloc[0])else:before=series[series.index<=target]ifnotbefore.empty:prices[ticker][date_str]=float(before.iloc[-1])returnpricesdef_price_on_or_after(px_by_date,target_date):"""Return (date, price) for the first available price on/after target."""ifnotpx_by_date:returnNonedates=sorted(dfordinpx_by_dateifd>=target_date)ifnotdates:returnNoned=dates[0]returnd,px_by_date[d]def_price_on_or_before(px_by_date,target_date):"""Return (date, price) for the last available price on/before target."""ifnotpx_by_date:returnNonedates=sorted(dfordinpx_by_dateifd<=target_date)ifnotdates:returnNoned=dates[-1]returnd,px_by_date[d]def_period_price_pair(px_by_date,start_date,end_date):"""Return start/end prices for a period using sensible boundary alignment."""start=_price_on_or_after(px_by_date,start_date)end=_price_on_or_before(px_by_date,end_date)ifstartisNoneorendisNone:returnNonestart_actual,p0=startend_actual,p1=endifend_actual<start_actual:returnNonereturnstart_actual,end_actual,p0,p1def_option_position_key(ticker,pos_type):return(ticker,pos_type)defcompute_return(positions,prices,start_date,end_date,mode='equity_only',option_prices=None,option_params=None):"""Compute weighted portfolio return between two dates. For option positions (call/put): if option_prices contains actual historical option prices for the ticker, compute returns directly from those prices. Otherwise fall back to Black-Scholes repricing using the parameters in option_params. """total_value=0weighted_return=0for(ticker,pos_type),valueinpositions.items():ifmode=='equity_only'andpos_type!='long':continueis_option=pos_typein('call','put')opt_key=_option_position_key(ticker,pos_type)opt_px=option_prices.get(opt_key)ifoption_priceselseNoneuse_option_px=bool(is_optionandopt_px)use_bs=Falseifuse_option_px:pair=_period_price_pair(opt_px,start_date,end_date)ifpairisNone:use_option_px=Falseelse:start_actual,end_actual,p0,p1=pairifnotuse_option_px:px=prices.get(ticker)pair=_period_price_pair(px,start_date,end_date)ifpairisNone:continuestart_actual,end_actual,p0,p1=pairifp0==0:continueret=(p1-p0)/p0# Fallback: BS repricing when no option price dataifis_optionandnotuse_option_px:params=option_params.get(ticker)ifoption_paramselseNoneifparams:K_call,K_put,sigma=paramsK_over_S=K_callifpos_type=='call'elseK_putdt=days_between(start_actual,end_actual)/365.25ret=bs_option_return(ret,K_over_S,OPTION_T,dt,sigma,pos_type)use_bs=Truetotal_value+=value# When using actual option/BS prices the return already reflects# the directional bet, so sign is +1. The -1 for puts applies# only to the raw stock-price proxy path.sign=1if(use_option_pxoruse_bs)else(-1ifpos_type=='put'else1)weighted_return+=value*sign*retreturnweighted_return/total_valueiftotal_valueelseNonedefannualize(ret,days):"""Annualize a return over a given number of calendar days."""ifretisNoneordays<=0:returnNonereturn(1+ret)**(365.25/days)-1defdays_between(d1,d2):return(datetime.strptime(d2,'%Y-%m-%d')-datetime.strptime(d1,'%Y-%m-%d')).daysdeffmt(ret):returnf"{ret*100:+.2f}%"ifretisnotNoneelse"N/A"# Collect all tickers and datesall_tickers=set()forpositionsinholdings.values():for(ticker,_)inpositions:all_tickers.add(ticker)all_tickers.add('SPY')today=datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d')first_date=filing_dates[quarters[0]]all_dates=set(filing_dates.values())|set(quarter_end_dates.values())|{today}prices=get_prices(sorted(all_tickers),sorted(all_dates))# Resolve `today` to the actual last available closing date.# yfinance may not have data for today (market still open or holiday),# so we look up what date SPY's price actually corresponds to.def_resolve_price_date(prices,requested_date):"""Return the actual trading date of the price stored under requested_date."""ref='SPY'if'SPY'inpriceselsenext(iter(prices),None)ifnotreforrequested_datenotinprices[ref]:returnrequested_datetarget_price=prices[ref][requested_date]# Re-download a small window to find the real date of this pricestart=datetime.strptime(requested_date,'%Y-%m-%d')-timedelta(days=10)end=datetime.strptime(requested_date,'%Y-%m-%d')+timedelta(days=5)df=yf.download(ref,start=start,end=end,progress=False,auto_adjust=True)ifdf.empty:returnrequested_dateifisinstance(df.columns,pd.MultiIndex):close=df['Close'][ref].dropna()elif'Close'indf.columns:close=df['Close'].dropna()else:close=df.iloc[:,0].dropna()fordt,pxinclose.items():val=float(px.iloc[0])ifisinstance(px,pd.Series)elsefloat(px)ifabs(val-target_price)<0.01:ts=dt[0]ifisinstance(dt,tuple)elsedtreturnpd.Timestamp(ts).strftime('%Y-%m-%d')returnrequested_datetoday_resolved=_resolve_price_date(prices,today)iftoday_resolved!=today:fortickerinprices:iftodayinprices[ticker]:prices[ticker][today_resolved]=prices[ticker].pop(today)today=today_resolveddefdownload_daily(tickers,start_date,end_date):"""Download daily close prices from yfinance, handling MultiIndex. Dates are 'YYYY-MM-DD' strings. Adds a small buffer for trading-day alignment."""tickers_sorted=sorted(tickers)start=datetime.strptime(start_date,'%Y-%m-%d')-timedelta(days=5)end=datetime.strptime(end_date,'%Y-%m-%d')+timedelta(days=5)df=yf.download(tickers_sorted,start=start,end=end,progress=False,auto_adjust=True)ifdf.empty:returnpd.DataFrame()ifisinstance(df.columns,pd.MultiIndex):returndf['Close']close=df[['Close']]close.columns=tickers_sortedreturnclose# -- Historical option prices via Alpha Vantage ----------------------------OPTION_CACHE_DIR=os.path.expanduser('~/My Drive/notes/.sa-lp-option-cache')_AV_BASE='https://www.alphavantage.co/query'_AV_RATE_DELAY=0.85# seconds between requests (75 req/min limit)OPTION_CACHE_COLUMNS=['date','option_type','strike','expiry','delta','price']def_normalize_option_type(option_type):option_type=str(option_type).lower()ifoption_typenotin('call','put'):raiseValueError(f"Unsupported option type:{option_type}")returnoption_typedef_empty_option_cache():returnpd.DataFrame(columns=OPTION_CACHE_COLUMNS)def_option_cache_path(ticker,option_type,legacy=False):iflegacy:returnos.path.join(OPTION_CACHE_DIR,f'{ticker}.csv')option_type=_normalize_option_type(option_type)returnos.path.join(OPTION_CACHE_DIR,f'{ticker}-{option_type}.csv')def_load_option_cache(ticker,option_type):"""Load cached option data for a ticker/type. Returns DataFrame or empty."""option_type=_normalize_option_type(option_type)paths=[_option_cache_path(ticker,option_type)]# Pre-fix caches were call-only and named TICKER.csv. They are safe to# reuse for calls but must not be reused for puts.ifoption_type=='call':legacy_path=_option_cache_path(ticker,option_type,legacy=True)iflegacy_pathnotinpaths:paths.append(legacy_path)frames=[]forpathinpaths:ifnotos.path.exists(path):continuedf=pd.read_csv(path)ifdf.empty:continueif'option_type'notindf.columns:df['option_type']='call'forcolinOPTION_CACHE_COLUMNS:ifcolnotindf.columns:df[col]=np.nandf['date']=pd.to_datetime(df['date'],errors='coerce').dt.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')df['option_type']=df['option_type'].fillna(option_type).str.lower()frames.append(df[OPTION_CACHE_COLUMNS])ifnotframes:return_empty_option_cache()cache=pd.concat(frames,ignore_index=True)cache=cache[cache['option_type']==option_type].copy()cache.dropna(subset=['date'],inplace=True)forcolin('strike','delta','price'):cache[col]=pd.to_numeric(cache[col],errors='coerce')cache.drop_duplicates(subset=['date','option_type','strike','expiry'],keep='last',inplace=True)cache.sort_values(['date','expiry','strike'],inplace=True)returncache[OPTION_CACHE_COLUMNS]def_save_option_cache(ticker,option_type,df):"""Persist typed option cache to CSV."""option_type=_normalize_option_type(option_type)os.makedirs(OPTION_CACHE_DIR,exist_ok=True)path=_option_cache_path(ticker,option_type)ifdf.empty:df=_empty_option_cache()else:df=df.copy()df['option_type']=option_typeforcolinOPTION_CACHE_COLUMNS:ifcolnotindf.columns:df[col]=np.nandf.drop_duplicates(subset=['date','option_type','strike','expiry'],keep='last',inplace=True)df.sort_values(['date','expiry','strike'],inplace=True)df.to_csv(path,index=False)def_fetch_option_chain(ticker,date_str,api_key):"""Fetch the full option chain for ticker on a given date from Alpha Vantage."""params={'function':'HISTORICAL_OPTIONS','symbol':ticker,'date':date_str,'apikey':api_key,}try:resp=requests.get(_AV_BASE,params=params,timeout=30)resp.raise_for_status()body=resp.json()returnbody.get('data',[])exceptException:return[]def_contract_window(ref_date_str):ref=datetime.strptime(ref_date_str,'%Y-%m-%d')returnref+timedelta(days=270),ref+timedelta(days=456)def_contract_from_cache_row(row,ref_date_str,option_type):option_type=_normalize_option_type(option_type)ifstr(row.get('option_type',option_type)).lower()!=option_type:returnNonelo,hi=_contract_window(ref_date_str)try:exp=datetime.strptime(str(row['expiry']),'%Y-%m-%d')except(KeyError,TypeError,ValueError):returnNoneifnot(lo<=exp<=hi):returnNonestrike=_safe_float(row.get('strike'))delta=_safe_float(row.get('delta'))price=_safe_float(row.get('price'))ifstrikeisNoneordeltaisNoneorpriceisNoneorprice<=0:returnNonereturn{'option_type':option_type,'strike':strike,'expiry':str(row['expiry']),'delta':delta,'price':price,}def_select_cached_contract(cache,option_type,ref_date_str):rows=cache[(cache['date']==ref_date_str)&(cache['option_type']==option_type)]candidates=[]for_,rowinrows.iterrows():contract=_contract_from_cache_row(row,ref_date_str,option_type)ifcontract:candidates.append(contract)ifnotcandidates:returnNonecandidates.sort(key=lambdax:abs(abs(x['delta'])-OPTION_DELTA))returncandidates[0]def_select_best_contract(chain,ref_date_str,option_type):"""Select the best-matching call/put contract from an option chain. Criteria: matching option type, expiry 9-15 months from ref_date, absolute delta closest to 0.15. Returns dict with type, strike, expiry, delta, price or None. """option_type=_normalize_option_type(option_type)lo,hi=_contract_window(ref_date_str)candidates=[]forcinchain:ifc.get('type','').lower()!=option_type:continuetry:exp=datetime.strptime(c['expiration'],'%Y-%m-%d')except(KeyError,ValueError):continueifnot(lo<=exp<=hi):continuedelta=_safe_float(c.get('delta'))ifdeltaisNone:continueabs_delta=abs(delta)ifabs_delta==0:continue# Price: prefer mid if available, else lastprice=_parse_option_price(c)ifpriceisNoneorprice<=0:continuecandidates.append({'option_type':option_type,'strike':float(c['strike']),'expiry':c['expiration'],'delta':delta,'price':price,})ifnotcandidates:returnNone# Pick contract with absolute delta closest to 0.15.candidates.sort(key=lambdax:abs(abs(x['delta'])-OPTION_DELTA))returncandidates[0]def_parse_option_price(contract):"""Extract a price from an Alpha Vantage option contract record."""bid=_safe_float(contract.get('bid'))ask=_safe_float(contract.get('ask'))last=_safe_float(contract.get('last'))ifbidandaskandbid>0andask>0:return(bid+ask)/2iflastandlast>0:returnlastreturnNonedef_safe_float(val):try:returnfloat(val)except(TypeError,ValueError):returnNonedef_cached_contract_price(cache,option_type,date_str,strike,expiry):rows=cache[(cache['date']==date_str)&(cache['option_type']==option_type)&(abs(cache['strike']-strike)<0.01)&(cache['expiry'].astype(str)==str(expiry))]for_,rowinrows.iterrows():price=_safe_float(row.get('price'))ifpriceisnotNoneandprice>0:returnpricereturnNonedef_extract_contract_price(chain,strike,expiry,option_type):"""Find the price of a specific option contract."""option_type=_normalize_option_type(option_type)forcinchain:ifc.get('type','').lower()!=option_type:continuetry:if(abs(float(c['strike'])-strike)<0.01andc.get('expiration')==expiry):return_parse_option_price(c)except(KeyError,TypeError,ValueError):continuereturnNonedefdownload_option_prices(option_positions,quarters,holdings,filing_dates,today):"""Download historical option prices from Alpha Vantage. For each (ticker, option_type) and each filing period: 1. On the first trading day, fetch the chain and select the best contract (matching type, expiry 9-15 months out, |delta| closest to 0.15). 2. Lock in that contract for the period. 3. Fetch the price of that contract on each subsequent trading day. Returns ------- per_period : dict {quarter_str: {(ticker, type): {date_str: float}}} Option prices keyed by filing period then option position. Each period has its own contract's prices, avoiding cross-contract mixing at boundary dates where one period ends and the next begins. fallback_positions : set Option positions where no option data was found (need BS fallback). """option_positions=sorted({(ticker,_normalize_option_type(pos_type))forticker,pos_typeinoption_positions})api_key=os.environ.get('ALPHA_VANTAGE_KEY','')cache_only=notbool(api_key)ifcache_only:print("WARNING: ALPHA_VANTAGE_KEY not set; using cached option ""prices where available and BS repricing elsewhere.")os.makedirs(OPTION_CACHE_DIR,exist_ok=True)per_period={}# {q: {(ticker, type): {date_str: price}}}fallback=set()fetched=0forticker,option_typeinoption_positions:opt_key=_option_position_key(ticker,option_type)cache=_load_option_cache(ticker,option_type)position_has_data=Falsenew_rows=[]fori,qinenumerate(quarters):# Skip quarters where this exact option position is absent.has_opts=opt_keyinholdings[q]ifnothas_opts:continueperiod_start=filing_dates[q]period_end=(filing_dates[quarters[i+1]]ifi<len(quarters)-1elsetoday)trading_days=pd.bdate_range(period_start,period_end)iflen(trading_days)==0:continuefirst_day=trading_days[0].strftime('%Y-%m-%d')# -- Select contract on first trading day --from_cache=Falsecontract=_select_cached_contract(cache,option_type,first_day)ifcontract:from_cache=Trueelse:ifnotcache_only:time.sleep(_AV_RATE_DELAY)chain=_fetch_option_chain(ticker,first_day,api_key)fetched+=1contract=_select_best_contract(chain,first_day,option_type)ifcontract:new_rows.append({'date':first_day,'option_type':option_type,'strike':contract['strike'],'expiry':contract['expiry'],'delta':contract['delta'],'price':contract['price'],})ifcontractisNone:fallback.add(opt_key)continuestrike=contract['strike']expiry=contract['expiry']# -- Collect prices for this period (fresh dict per period) --period_prices={}iffrom_cache:# Fast path: read all matching prices from cache (no API calls).rows=cache[(cache['date']>=period_start)&(cache['date']<=period_end)&(cache['option_type']==option_type)&(abs(cache['strike']-strike)<0.01)&(cache['expiry'].astype(str)==str(expiry))&pd.notna(cache['price'])]for_,rowinrows.iterrows():period_prices[row['date']]=float(row['price'])else:# Slow path: fetch each trading day from APIifcontract.get('price'):period_prices[first_day]=contract['price']fordayintrading_days[1:]:day_str=day.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')cached_price=_cached_contract_price(cache,option_type,day_str,strike,expiry)ifcached_priceisnotNone:period_prices[day_str]=cached_pricecontinuetime.sleep(_AV_RATE_DELAY)chain=_fetch_option_chain(ticker,day_str,api_key)fetched+=1price=_extract_contract_price(chain,strike,expiry,option_type)ifpriceisnotNone:period_prices[day_str]=pricenew_rows.append({'date':day_str,'option_type':option_type,'strike':strike,'expiry':expiry,'delta':contract['delta'],'price':price,})# Accumulate per-period pricesifperiod_prices:per_period.setdefault(q,{})[opt_key]=period_pricesposition_has_data=True# Persist new data to cacheifnew_rows:new_df=pd.DataFrame(new_rows)cache=pd.concat([cache,new_df],ignore_index=True)cache.drop_duplicates(subset=['date','option_type','strike','expiry'],keep='last',inplace=True)cache.sort_values(['date','expiry','strike'],inplace=True)_save_option_cache(ticker,option_type,cache)ifnotposition_has_data:fallback.add(opt_key)iffetched:importsysprint(f"[options] Fetched{fetched} chain snapshots from Alpha Vantage",file=sys.stderr)returnper_period,fallback# -- Fallback: Black-Scholes repricing for tickers without option data -----fromscipy.statsimportnormas_normdefcompute_realized_vol(tickers,download_daily_fn,today_str):"""Compute annualized realized vol from trailing 1-year daily returns."""vol_start=(datetime.strptime(today_str,'%Y-%m-%d')-timedelta(days=400)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d')vol_df=download_daily_fn(tickers,vol_start,today_str)result={}fortickerintickers:iftickerinvol_df.columns:series=vol_df[ticker].dropna()iflen(series)>20:log_rets=np.log(series/series.shift(1)).dropna().tail(252)result[ticker]=float(log_rets.std()*np.sqrt(252))returnresultdefbs_price(S,K,T,sigma,option_type='call'):"""Black-Scholes option price (assumes zero risk-free rate and dividends)."""ifT<=0orsigma<=0:ifoption_type=='call':returnmax(S-K,0)returnmax(K-S,0)d1=(np.log(S/K)+(sigma**2/2)*T)/(sigma*np.sqrt(T))d2=d1-sigma*np.sqrt(T)ifoption_type=='call':returnS*_norm.cdf(d1)-K*_norm.cdf(d2)returnK*_norm.cdf(-d2)-S*_norm.cdf(-d1)defbs_option_return(stock_return,K_over_S,T,delta_t,sigma,option_type='call'):"""Compute option return from stock return using Black-Scholes repricing. Normalizes S_0 = 1, so S_1 = 1 + stock_return and K = K_over_S. T is time to expiry at period start; delta_t is time elapsed. """V0=bs_price(1.0,K_over_S,T,sigma,option_type)V1=bs_price(1.0+stock_return,K_over_S,max(T-delta_t,0),sigma,option_type)ifV0<=0:returnstock_returnreturnV1/V0-1OPTION_DELTA=0.15OPTION_T=1.0defbuild_option_params(option_tickers,ticker_vol):"""Build {ticker: (K_over_S_call, K_over_S_put, sigma)} for BS fallback."""result={}fortinoption_tickers:iftnotinticker_vol:continuesigma=ticker_vol[t]srt=sigma*OPTION_T**0.5# Call: delta = N(d1) = OPTION_DELTAd1_call=_norm.ppf(OPTION_DELTA)K_call=np.exp(-d1_call*srt+sigma**2*OPTION_T/2)# Put: delta = N(d1) - 1 = -OPTION_DELTA, so N(d1) = 1 - OPTION_DELTAd1_put=_norm.ppf(1-OPTION_DELTA)K_put=np.exp(-d1_put*srt+sigma**2*OPTION_T/2)result[t]=(K_call,K_put,sigma)returnresultdefdaily_cumulative(holdings,quarters,filing_dates,close,today,mode,per_period_opt=None,option_params=None):"""Build a daily series of cumulative growth factors for a given mode. For each filing period the portfolio weights are fixed. Each trading day's weighted return is computed relative to the period's starting prices, then chained with the prior period's cumulative growth. For option positions: uses per-period option prices from per_period_opt when available; otherwise falls back to Black-Scholes repricing using option_params. """cum_growth=1.0dates_out=[]values_out=[]fori,qinenumerate(quarters):period_start=filing_dates[q]period_end=filing_dates[quarters[i+1]]ifi<len(quarters)-1elsetodayps=pd.Timestamp(period_start)pe=pd.Timestamp(period_end)# Trading days in this periodmask=(close.index>=ps)&(close.index<=pe)period_close=close[mask]ifperiod_close.empty:continue# Option prices for this period (keyed by (ticker, type) → prices)quarter_opt=per_period_opt.get(q,{})ifper_period_optelse{}# Determine portfolio weights and starting pricespositions=holdings[q]weights={}start_prices={}use_opt_px={}# track which positions use option pricestotal_value=0for(ticker,pos_type),valueinpositions.items():ifmode=='equity_only'andpos_type!='long':continue# Select price source for this positionis_option=pos_typein('call','put')opt_key=_option_position_key(ticker,pos_type)has_opt=is_optionandopt_keyinquarter_optifhas_opt:ticker_opt=quarter_opt[opt_key]opt_dates=sorted(dfordinticker_optifd>=period_start)ifnotopt_dates:continuestart_prices[(ticker,pos_type)]=ticker_opt[opt_dates[0]]eliftickerinclose.columns:src=close[ticker].dropna()avail=src[src.index>=ps]ifavail.empty:continuestart_prices[(ticker,pos_type)]=float(avail.iloc[0])else:continueweights[(ticker,pos_type)]=valueuse_opt_px[(ticker,pos_type)]=has_opttotal_value+=valueiftotal_value==0:continue# Daily weighted return relative to period start# Skip first day of subsequent periods (already recorded as last day# of the prior period) to avoid duplicate boundary dates.start_idx=1ifi>0else0# Forward-fill: track last known option price so that gaps in# option data don't cause positions to vanish mid-period.last_opt={k:vfork,vinstart_prices.items()ifuse_opt_px.get(k)}forday_idxinrange(start_idx,len(period_close)):day=period_close.index[day_idx]day_str=day.strftime('%Y-%m-%d')weighted_return=0for(ticker,pos_type),valueinweights.items():p0=start_prices[(ticker,pos_type)]ifp0==0:continueifuse_opt_px[(ticker,pos_type)]:opt_key=_option_position_key(ticker,pos_type)p1_val=quarter_opt.get(opt_key,{}).get(day_str)ifp1_valisnotNone:last_opt[(ticker,pos_type)]=p1_valelse:p1_val=last_opt.get((ticker,pos_type))ifp1_valisNone:continueeliftickerinperiod_close.columns:p1_val=period_close[ticker].iloc[day_idx]ifpd.isna(p1_val):continueelse:continueret=(float(p1_val)-p0)/p0# Fallback: BS repricing for option positions without option datause_bs=Falseif(pos_typein('call','put')andnotuse_opt_px[(ticker,pos_type)]):params=option_params.get(ticker)ifoption_paramselseNoneifparams:K_call,K_put,sigma=paramsK_over_S=K_callifpos_type=='call'elseK_putdt=(day-ps).days/365.25ret=bs_option_return(ret,K_over_S,OPTION_T,dt,sigma,pos_type)use_bs=Truesign=1if(use_opt_px[(ticker,pos_type)]oruse_bs)else(-1ifpos_type=='put'else1)weighted_return+=(value/total_value)*sign*retdates_out.append(day)values_out.append(cum_growth*(1+weighted_return))# Chain: next period starts from the last day's growth factorifvalues_out:cum_growth=values_out[-1]returndates_out,values_outimportplotly.graph_objectsasgoHUGO_BASE=os.path.expanduser('~/My Drive/repos/stafforini.com')# ── Fetch daily prices ────────────────────────────────────────────close=download_daily(all_tickers,first_date,today)dates_eq,vals_eq=daily_cumulative(holdings,quarters,filing_dates,close,today,'equity_only')dates_full,vals_full=daily_cumulative(holdings,quarters,filing_dates,close,today,'full')# ── Compute SPY benchmark ─────────────────────────────────────────spy_series=close['SPY'].dropna()spy_start=spy_series[spy_series.index>=pd.Timestamp(first_date)]ifnotspy_start.empty:spy_p0=float(spy_start.iloc[0])spy_dates=spy_start.index.tolist()spy_vals=[float(p)/spy_p0forpinspy_start.values]else:spy_dates,spy_vals=[],[]# ── Plot with Plotly ───────────────────────────────────────────────eq_pct=[round((v-1)*100,1)forvinvals_eq]full_pct=[round((v-1)*100,1)forvinvals_full]spy_pct=[round((v-1)*100,1)forvinspy_vals]fig=go.Figure()fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=dates_eq,y=eq_pct,mode='lines',name='Equity only',line=dict(color='#2563eb',width=2)))fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=dates_full,y=full_pct,mode='lines',name='Full exposure proxy',line=dict(color='#dc2626',width=2)))fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=spy_dates,y=spy_pct,mode='lines',name='S&P 500 (SPY)',line=dict(color='#16a34a',width=2,dash='dot')))# Vertical lines at filing dates (rebalancing points)forfdinfiling_dates.values():fig.add_vline(x=fd,line=dict(color='gray',width=0.5),opacity=0.4)fig.add_hline(y=0,line=dict(color='gray',width=0.8))fig.update_layout(title=dict(text='SA LP copycat: cumulative returns',font=dict(size=15)),yaxis=dict(title='Cumulative return',hoverformat='+.1f',ticksuffix='%'),hovermode='x unified',xaxis=dict(spikemode='across',spikethickness=0.5,spikedash='solid',spikecolor='gray'),template='plotly_white',legend=dict(x=0.02,y=0.98,bgcolor='rgba(255,255,255,0.8)'),margin=dict(l=60,r=20,t=50,b=40),height=500,)# ── Generate HTML with dark-mode support ──────────────────────────importrechart_html=fig.to_html(full_html=False,include_plotlyjs='cdn',config={'responsive':True,'displayModeBar':False})div_id=re.search(r'id="([^"]+)"',chart_html).group(1)dark_script="""<script>(function() { var gd = document.getElementById('%s'); function isDark() { try { return parent.document.documentElement.getAttribute('data-theme') === 'dark'; } catch(e) { return window.matchMedia('(prefers-color-scheme: dark)').matches; } } function apply() { var dk = isDark(); Plotly.relayout(gd, { paper_bgcolor: 'rgba(0,0,0,0)', plot_bgcolor: dk ? 'rgba(30,30,30,0.5)' : 'rgba(255,255,255,0.8)', font: {color: dk ? '#d4d4d4' : '#333'}, 'title.font.color': dk ? '#d4d4d4' : '#333', 'xaxis.gridcolor': dk ? 'rgba(255,255,255,0.1)' : 'rgba(0,0,0,0.1)', 'yaxis.gridcolor': dk ? 'rgba(255,255,255,0.1)' : 'rgba(0,0,0,0.1)', 'legend.bgcolor': dk ? 'rgba(30,30,30,0.8)' : 'rgba(255,255,255,0.8)', 'legend.font.color': dk ? '#d4d4d4' : '#333', }); } apply(); new MutationObserver(function() { apply(); }).observe( parent.document.documentElement, {attributes: true, attributeFilter: ['data-theme']});})();</script>"""%div_idoutpath=os.path.join(HUGO_BASE,'static','images','sa-lp-returns.html')withopen(outpath,'w')asf:f.write('<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head><meta charset="utf-8">\n''<meta http-equiv="Cache-Control" content="no-cache, no-store, must-revalidate">\n''<style>body { margin: 0; background: transparent; }</style>\n''</head>\n<body>\n'+chart_html+dark_script+'\n</body>\n</html>')